Such_a_brett

And then Business Insider just went and ranked Logan UT as the #1 metro area in the west to move to post coronavirus. The only city in the entire west to make the top 15 overall ranking. The secret is getting out.

@akale15 UT is an outdoorsman paradise. Our location is less than 2 hours from a dozen world class snow ski resorts. The river bordering the property has fantastic fishing. There are endless mountain trails for biking, ATV, snowmobile. World class rock climbing a few miles away up the nearest canyon. Yellowstone, Park City, Moab, Zion, all quick weekend getaways. Add to that, incredibly low unemployment, friendly people, and low crime. It is the best kept secret in the US because a lot of people still consider it fly over country.

@escmanaze You are exactly correct. The smallest lots are 1/4 acre. The largest are about 3/4 acre, with some of the river front lots getting to 1.5acres. Designed specifically for average lot size of 0.4 acres with ideal design dimensions. How you are describing the Utah market is spot on. There are at least some options for those willing to spend $4-500k+ for the lot. With CCRs that demand a $800k+ home. And then $200-500/month HOA dues and you gotta provide your own boat. The feedback we are getting is that our setup is pretty irresistible. They usually say something at this quality, within 1.5 miles of the main shopping/restaurant district and such a long list of amenities was never going to be within reach here. We are talking doctors, professors, lawyers, professionals, etc. Even an upper middle class family with decent equity in their home can relocate here. The demographic of people willing and able to spend $1.5MM for this neighborhood and $5k/year HOA is very small. The demo of people at $200k for the lot, $75/month HOA, and boats provided is VERY large. And you are exactly right about UT boat owners. Most parents primarily ski, but they don't own a prostar. They own a wakesetter.

@DaveD There is a high demand for lots that will be purchased but possibly never built on. CCRs say they must landscape according to design guides but don't ever have to build. We estimate at least 25% of lots, and possibly up to 35% will not be built on within the first 10-20 years after purchase. If you look at the layout, you'll notice that the narrowest lots (about 1/4 acre) are staggered between the bigger lots. This is to provide a more open aesthetic to the community as it will typically be the smallest lots that aren't built on. This will absolutely help to prevent an overcrowded tract home type feel. Additionally, there are design criteria in the CCRs and an architectural review committee that ensures 4-sided architecture. We are less concerned about size requirements and more concerned about appropriate style and quality design. Albeit, we won't allow tiny homes so there will be a minimum size.

@Martin1980 That's how they are designed.

@owennibley Firstly, rest assured that we are not suggesting a base rate of $50 per set. That would be close to what ski clubs charge. We are not running the boats as a separate endeavor to maximize profit. Rather just ensuring that availability is maintained at a reasonable rate for all residents. My current estimations have the base rate less than half that. The breakdown would likely look something like this (per set)... Fuel-------------------$8 Maintenance/Cleaning----$2 Driver------------------$9 Exclusivity Fee-----------$4 Booking Fee-------------$0 I gave rough examples of the increased base rate just to demonstrate the concept of regulating the use of a public good (as we say in economic terms). We don't intend to have hard cutoff levels. Rather something smoother with visual indicators on the app. So for example, let's assume a base rate of $23/set on the slalom lake. You were talking about getting out very early in the morning, so I don't see availability being a problem for you. IOW, I don't expect that you'd ever need to schedule so many sets so far in advance as to push your price up. In that case, your 100 sets would cost about $2200. But let's assume that you did have to compete for time somewhat and you just decided to go ahead and pre-book according to the schedule that you outlined above. The extra charge wouldn't jump from $23 to $36 to $46 to $58 as you suggested. It would be an accelerating increase in the booking fee that starts at $0 and ramps up. The first handful of extra sets above the limit would be about $27 per, instead of $23 ($4 booking fee). Then the next handful would be around $35 per ($8 booking fee). Then the next handful would be about $47 ($12 booking fee). Then $63... Then $83... So what I'm illustrating is that you'd be allowed to go slightly above your limit with minimal impact, but as you progress further and you start locking down 30 sets a couple months in advance, you'd have to pay for the privilege. Conversely, if you are booking many of your sets within 2-4 days of the slot, the open times are evidence that you aren't depriving anyone else of their fair share, because they would've already booked if they'd wanted to. Also, there are a couple other considerations. The scheduler allows you to have more standing reservations if they aren't all back-to-back. So for example, let's say you want to schedule a single set @7am every mon, wed, fri for the next 6 weeks. Those 18 sets have a much lesser impact on the community than saying you want to book 18 back-to-back sets on Labor Day, 4 months in advance. So the app will allow you to schedule a greater amount of dispersed sets without a booking fee, but a lesser amount of sequential sets. To put it in perspective, blocking out 6 solid hours for a family reunion or something would start to resemble the cost of renting a boat for the day at Bear Lake. Also, the app will allow for standby times. You or your kids can put yourself on a standby list and if someone misses their time, you can jump in. I imagine during the summer there will be a fair number of youth hanging out at the pools and beach, looking to jump into any available standby slots.

@skimtb 3 boats at once would be the exception and would be all tubers. If surf or wakeboard, only 1 or 2 boats at one time.

@cfgunnell... That is nice. I wish I could get water like that at Hyrum or the other big wake locations past about 9am. Given the density of the community, ultimately it would be very difficult to allow personal boats. It isn't just a coordination issue, it is also an insurance issue. Consequently, the HOA will be purchasing 4 boats. One will be a dedicated slalom tow boat. Two others will be dedicated big wake boats. The fourth will be a crossover that will be available for offsite rental by residents only, but can also function as a backup to the other three boats if necessary. We are talking about top end competition series craft, and we will rotate them out every two years or a number of hours. Essentially, we'll be replacing two boats each year. There will be a charter company onsite that runs the schedule and provides drivers. It's possible that we will allow a limited number of residents to certify as drivers and be included on the insurance policy. We are building a mobile app that will coordinate all scheduling. There will be a base use rate per 15 minute turn that will cover fuel, maintenance, cleaning, driver, etc. Boats and insurance are paid by HOA in order to keep usage rates low and ensure that quality boats are always available and don't depend on high usage fees from a relative small number of active residents. The app will allow you to schedule either exclusive water time or shared water time (big lake only) with the former being slightly more expensive. You'll be allowed a certain number of exclusive times, and a certain number of shared turns to be scheduled more than 4 weeks in advance. Then within 2 weeks of the date, the limit increases slightly. Then within 2-3 days you'll be free to lockup more open turns even if you have reached your future limits. These scheduling limits are only limits in the sense of getting charged just the base rate. If you choose to lockup more turns than your base limit, the price per turn will increase at an accelerating rate. This is not to generate revenue, but simply to fairly allocate availability. For example, a single resident won't be able to jump on and block out times for all major holidays without paying a very hefty price. OTOH, lets say you have a Sweet 16 and your girl wants to have a boating party. You'd be able to lock up a single boat for 4-6 solid hours during the party, but it will cost you far more than the base rate; something like 4x more per turn. If you cut it down to 2 hours it would be maybe 2x more per turn. Think of it like this. You are only paying about $400-500 per year in HOA fees to have new comp level boats at your disposal. There has to be a usage fee to prevent abuse by some individuals at the expense of everyone else. The usage fee has several components; Prorated Fuel --- fixed cost per turn Driver --- fixed cost cost per turn Prorated Maintenance --- fixed cost per turn Exclusivity fee --- fixed cost per turn where applicable Reservation fee --- variable fee based on the number of existing reservations. I'd like to allow boating from 6am-10:30pm, but it might have to be 7am due to city noise ordinance. This location doesn't have any other homes close by, and without music pumping they aren't particularly noisy. We will do sound testing to determine if 6am is a possibility as long as music isn't allowed at the earliest and latest hours. With the number of boats we'll be running, my estimates are that a resident would generally be able to get on the water last minute at least 1/2 of the time within a 2 hour window. It might be fully booked on the holiday weekends, but let's be real. You could expect a good experience on a public waterway on those dates either. At least here, if you schedule in advance, you are guaranteed at least a couple 15 minute turns with perfect water even on the busiest days.

A couple notes for those interested... Average lot size is 0.4 acres. Lots range from $106,000 to $360,000 Average lot price is around $190,000 The winding red line around the bottom is a walking/biking trail along the river that connects to a large park and another few miles of river trail. Ultimately, over the next couple decades, the county plans to extend the river trail another 6 miles west to a reservoir and another 3 miles east to a canyon. We are still trying to work out a paddle lake at bottom right but that area is primarily classified wetland, so we likely won't get the go ahead from the Army Corps. Surface area of large lake is about 29 acres. Surface area of slalom lake is about 10 acres. We have about 500 acre feet of water rights. The large lake will allow for scheduling exclusive time or shared time; the latter allowing for the other boat(s) to be on the water simultaneously for the tubers and surfers who don't mind if the water isn't glass. This will dramatically increase the number of open slots on the boat schedule. At peaks times we'll often be running 2-3 boats at once on the large lake and 1 on the slalom lake. The large lake has a very large dock (upper middle) with pools, splash pad, hot tubs, BBQ, beach volleyball, etc. The slalom lake has an arched bridge on the left end accessing the dock which is out on the turn island. This island also has a large hot tub, gazebo, etc. All shorelines except turn areas will have beach sand and the lots are deeper to accommodate a 15ft easement to allow for jogging around the lake. The large lake perimeter is about 1.2 miles. The large lake has a large beach/swim/paddle area at the top. The fourth boat will be available for offsite rental for residents only, needing a boat for a trip to a different boating location for a few days. Starting spring 2021, we will likely be selling family season access passes equal to the number of residences that have not been sold (330 available minus however many lots have been sold and occupied condos). We will do this each season until the lots are all sold and condos are all occupied. This will both raise revenue and help us get a feel for working out optimal scheduling processes. As it sits right now we expect both lakes to be operational spring 2021. At current rate, we expect all lots sold within 3 years instead of the expected 5 years. So far 1/2 of those reserving lots are from outside Cache Valley, having heard about the project through the grapevine. We will begin marketing the project as soon as the Army Corps approves the very thorough 195 page wetland delineation report (should be within 6 weeks). We are waiting on the Army Corp before getting firm commits from investors, so we haven't reached out to our normal network yet. Meantime, a few others have heard of the project and requested the opportunity for investment, so the anticipated capital raise is currently about 75% subscribed. Given that the lots are moving so quickly, we might go ahead and increase the capital raise and accelerate the completion schedule. We will also be starting the multifamily build in phase 1 instead of phase 2 as originally planned.

Yes, here is a pic of the project as it stands right now. A few tweaks are still happening as we work with wetland remediation and cooperating with the city on incorporating their river walking/biking paths and parks/bridges. The city is very excited about the project as it brings a great amenity to an area of town that is difficult to attract luxury housing to. And we are really trying to do our best to help the city preserve the natural beauty of the Logan River and forested wetland areas. Overall the project has come along really well. In fact, we've got verbal commitments for purchase of 40 of the 146 single-family lots already, despite not having started marketing yet.

Would appreciate some feedback on minimum turn radius to keep a surfer up without a rope. Assume a new comp level boat like an air nautique.

Coming to the final stretch on this project. Target to break ground is November.

The obnoxious thing about wetland in this case is that it is manmade wetlands. The land owners dug a culvert under a highway to help drain another piece on the other side. They then dug a canal to direct water to the middle of this property. Consequently, this property now floods and grows wetland vegetation in select spots. If they had redirected that drainage to the river a year ago, the wetland vegetation would've died off in one season.

Yeah, gotta have the army corps involved from the beginning on this one due to wetland delineation. Better to know up front though. Typical wetland must be restored 2:1 and pristine wetland is 3:1. If you don't have enough available land to restore then you can buy into a fund for $40k per acre. Ther latter is definitely not the ideal outcome.

Just an update for those interested. We are still making progress on this. As things go, we have run into obstacles that we have to overcome. The biggest and most unexpected was during a meeting with the city. We had about 15 people in that meeting including my whole team, our civil engineer and his team, the mayor, the city lawyer responsible for the easement provisions, the city planners, road sewer and utilities, and city engineers. There were typical concerns around noise levels, but those were easily assuaged. There was some discussion around our impact on the conservation easment and whether we were willing to support (i.e. pay for) the city plan for more river walkways and bike paths. Ultimately the city wants this development because it means about $4MM additional taxes annually coming from an area that otherwise won't create much tax base at all. Everything went well, and then out of left field at the end, the engineer exclaims that he is planning to submit a reclassification with FEMA to declare about 95% of the 185 acres as flood zone. This is in contrast to the roughly 10 acres that is currently classified as such. Because the excavation of this project moves 450,000 yards or dirt, we are changing the grade pretty significantly. His argument is that this shoves the flood waters to the other side of the river. He claims to have documented evidence that this does actually flood. Long story shorter, we inserted ourselves into his reclassification process with the consultants coordinating with FEMA and have re-engineered the grading to accommodate their proposed 100-year flood event without shoving it to the other side of the river. That should be completed this month along with a wetland mitigation report. Then it's on to the army corps which will take several months. Steady wins the race I guess.

@bradenday I know exactly what you mean about the boating experience. You are right that I would say some of the other amenities make up for a good portion of that. For example, when I go boating Bear Lake, we mostly spend the day lounging in the boat on the water. When I boat Glendale at a buddy's cabin we spend much more time socializing on the private dock, beach, volleyball, firepit, etc... and everyone just rotates on and off the boat throughout the day. Sure it's a different mindset and I enjoy both. I would suggest that the more important is consistent quality sets. I can go out on a choppy lake with friends or rent for a day on a weekend getaway anywhere and anytime. Even with the occassional offsite rental, guys like me are still money ahead to live and ski mainly in a private community. I think the best thing we could do is keep a 4th boat for offsite use at like $200-300/day or something. In terms of timing, these projects take some time. The conservation easement was a curveball that I didn't expect. Now I'm in discussions with a second land owner to add acreage to overcome the easement. If that all goes well, we would start working through permits and civil before year end. Best case we still don't have a shovel in the ground until Juky or August though. First we've gotta get past the 'not in my backyard' crowd at the council meetings. We hope to be taking lot reservations around June or July.

@escmanaze I was thinking more like Eagle Mountain. So yeah, right next to Cedar Fort. I like the proximity of Saratoga Springs better, but worry about the wind. If we did something there, I would try to do something more like 200 acres and 4 lakes. I would also strongly consider doing a AWM type wave lake. Also, I don't know that market as well, so I'd have some learning to do. In my local market, I know which locations are winners without even stepping foot on them.

@owennibley Don't get me wrong. I'd still love to have you out for some sets if we get this in place. I also wouldn't be too hard on Bear Lake. It is a fun place. Just not anywhere close to as enjoyable to ski on as the private lakes over at Bear Hollow. If I lived on these private lakes, Bear Lake and Powell would have a different focus for me. Not so focused on ski/wakeboard. More about the other activities like swimming and climbing through slot canyons or long RZR rides (which I also rent instead of own now). But @escmanaze makes a really valid point about private lakes being more accommodating of the questionable weather days. Especially when we are talking about lakes like this project that are surrounded by 50-60ft trees all the way around. When I'm not being pulled by a boat, I also like to kiteboard. The two best locations near Logan are Willard and Bear Lake, because they have A LOT of wind days. Windy weather and large lakes are not a good combination for skiing. A huge benefit to these private lakes is that unless you are in the middle of a big downpour or a massive storm front is moving over, the wind won't really matter. Also, the lakes stay much warmer and the ski season is 1.5-2 months longer than at the public reservoirs. At least that has been my experience at Bear Hollow Lakes. I would get out on those lakes at good month earlier than I would venture out onto Hyrum, Bear Lake, or Willard.

One other side note on community desirability specific to this area. There's is a huge demand for upscale developments on flat terrain. Because of the layout of the valley we all know that most of the upscale developments are on the mountainside. Sure the valley views are nice but there are big drawbacks. My own lot is a perfect example- 1/2 acre in a premium North Logan bench area (sorta like foothills to the non-Utah folks). Lot value is $110k but when I finish building, I'll have spent another $20-30k in retaining walls and the roads are too steep for my 2 young kids to ride their bikes. I've thought about selling the land because of that. Increasingly people are searching out flat terrain because they don't really want to live on the side of a mountain.

@escmanaze I couldn't have said it better myself. Maybe we'll have to bring you on the sales team. :D The funny thing is that you were just arguing it from the boat perspective. My brokers and I think that at least 1/2 the buyers won't ever intend on strapping a board to their feet. They will buy for the atmosphere, beauty, and other amenities. Not to mention the appreciation potential. A lot of people just want a nice well-maintained social community. Re: schedule and demand... I completely agree. I've already spoken with another lake community elsewhere that has 3 lakes and 90 homes. Their description was that the main lake got fairly regular use but was still pretty easy to get sets in. The second lake was the backup lake for the crowded days. The third lake was essentially a fishing pond and less maintained because nobody ever needed to use it for skiing. I think that a handful of guys like @bradenday are gonna do the math and realize this place ticks all the boxes. After one season they'll realize the full extent of what they were just dealing with before and they will become our best sales reps through word of mouth. But my brokers are pretty straight with me on demand and value for my projects. With this project they are confident they'll pre-sell most of the lots prior to phase completion. You might be interested that we have tentative plans to do another one (likely a bit larger) around point of the mountain area, provided this one progresses reasonably well. Wanna be somewhat close to "Silicon Slopes".

@cfgunnell LOL! I wouldn't expect it to sound appealing to a guy who already has a private lake 10 miles north. :D I'll gladly bring you for a bunch of sets once we get water in it.

@owennibley I don't mind the discussion. I hope I don't come off as argumentative. By profession I am a financial analyst who runs a fintech firm and also happens to be in real estate development. So my brain automatically runs through all the different angles. Obviously everyone approaches hobbies with different perceptions and what they consider to be sunk costs that aren't really applicable to the hobby.

@owennibley I wouldn't go as far as to say that you aren't at all the target demo, but absolutely your situation won't be typical of the likely residents here. You hit the nail on the head. The target demo either owns a new-ish wakesetter and wishes it actually made sense, or doesn't own a wakesetter and wishes they could justify it. In any case, you are still missing a few real costs that you have now but wouldn't have in our resort. FUEL You are neglecting fuel costs saying that you would still have them renting. What I am proposing is that fuel cost are included in the rental. Myself and most of my friends burn about 6-7 gal/hour if we are pulling riders and not just idling around. With my level of use each year that is about $900/season for the boat. Then there is the fuel for the truck. You keep mentioning Bear Lake, Willard, Hyrum, Glendale, etc. I use all of these. I'm about $200/season in truck fuel. TRUCK I know you are saying that you don't own a truck just to pull the boat. That is true, but I will say it is the main reason I would own a truck. I have a daily driver for when I'm not towing. But we won't consider the truck payment and stuff, let's just talk depreciation and wear & tear directly associated with boat trips. Again our target buyer doesn't pull their boat with a 1990 pickup with 200,000 miles on it. Before I sold my truck I was typical. 2 year old Ford F350 diesel (about $55k). In any case, the IRS thinks that 0.58/mile is appropriate to cover typical wear and tear, so let's go with that. That ends up at $300/year. Even with your very cost-conscious boat, we are now up to $2400-ish as compared to $3,000 on our lakes for the same amount of use. But then you have to consider what you are getting for the other $600. You reference several boating spots close by. In my experience not a single one of those spots is a very nice experience after 9:30am. Let's use Hyrum as the largest local spot. The boating area early in the season (200-ish acres) is about 5x larger than our resort lakes, but on a nice day there will be 10-20 other boats on the water. Even worse on Glendale, Cutler, and Newton, and especially late in the season when irrigation turns them into mud puddles. Willard and Bear Lake are much bigger, but because of wind and heavy boat pressure are even choppier. I would rather pay $3,000/season for perfect conditions every set than $2400/season to fight other boats all day. I would gladly deal with scheduling my sessions as well if it means I'm guaranteed to have warmer smooth water. Also, if we are going to make the argument that boat depreciation doesn't count if you can sell it for what you bought it for (which is unlikely for most boat owners), we then get to use that argument on the lot purchase. Sure you spend $60K extra for the lot, but in 10 years that $60k will actually be worth closer to $80K with typical real estate appreciation. So by that reckoning, the purchase price shouldn't be counted toward the cost of boating. And if it is, the appreciation should be counted against the HOA and boat use fees. So in this example, the total net cost of boating over 10 years would be about $13,800 or $1,380/year for brand new competition series boats with perfect water conditions. Still seems like a great deal to a guy like me. Not to mention that I no longer need my own swimming pool, hot tub, gym membership, etc.

@bradenday I'd love any information and feedback you are willing to give. You are absolutely the target for this. You sound just like 1/2 of my neighbors in North Logan (although I think you get out on the water more than them). I know the official stats don't reflect it, but you can probably back me up on the fact that there are plenty of local families with parents in the 40-60yo range, 2-4 kids, making $100k+. Again that description (with or without the boat) is literally ~90% of my neighborhood. I would tell you that this resort community experience isn't just about boating at a cheaper price. People tend to focus on the boating aspect because that certainly becomes the focal point in a ski lake development. But there are a ton of other perks in this development. The main boat docks will be setup as social areas with pools, hot tubs, splash pads, viewing decks, covered lounges, BBQ, sand volleyball, swim/beach area, gear lockers, etc... Essentially the type of amenities you'd get at a typical resort. The idea is that your group can be having fun together and with others in the community even if you might have to wait a bit between sets. Outdoor winter activities right out your back door like skating and hockey, snowmobile tubing. Onsite gym, clubhouse, massage, etc... River fishing, bike/jogging path, SUP/kayak Throughout the summer, your kids will be able to get sets in even while you are at work and can't drive them. Boating doesn't need to be an all-day commitment. It can be a quick 30 minutes. To address your concerns... absolutely any situation like this can't be all pros with no cons. But in my experience, the pros dramatically outweigh the cons in this case. 1. I'm just like you. I do a fair amount of boating at Bear Lake and once a summer for 11 days at Powell. To be fair, we mainly do Bear Lake out of necessity because let's be honest, the water is freezing and generally poor quality unless you're ready to go at sunrise. I've switched completely to renting at Bear Lake because there are many rental shops. It's now a much nicer experience than hauling my own boat over and then hauling back and cleaning it and the truck when done. If I lived in this resort I probably wouldn't boat at Bear Lake much anymore. Instead it would be for ATV, hiking/rock climbing, etc. Internally, we have discussed the idea of keeping 4 boats in the charter. Perhaps the ones that have already been through a season on the private lakes could be rented to residents at very reasonable prices for offsite family trips. I mean really, you know when you are wanting to go to Powell and can schedule that trip. This type of situation would still likely be less than the $7k you spend now. And much more convenient. 2. This is absolutely a possibility. I'm working very hard right now to optimize the balance between cost and pressure on the boats. In the very first proposal we had 310 households on a small 2-lake setup, neither perfectly suited for big wake, which I suspected was the top end of acceptable density. The second proposal with the V-shaped lake increased to 400 households, but changed to effectively a 4-lake setup. The no-wake crowd was moved to a paddle pond, and the recreational lake was created to be suitable for 2 boats at a time if tubing or surfing. I think we have a total winner with this latest concept. We now have a dedicated comp ski lake and a bigger paddle lake, but the rec lake is fantastically suited for the big wake crowd. It can still run 2 boats when tubing and surfing creating an effective 4-lake equivalent. But more importantly, I've worked the project costs out so that I can drop the density back down to 300 households. I've done a lot of research into other private lakes and my estimates are that this setup will result in less than 50% overall booking. Will there be busy times? Yes, but the scheduling system won't allow single families to commandeer the lakes at all prime times. For example, a single family can't block out noon-3pm on a saturday in July. They also can't reserve every saturday from 1-2pm for multiple weeks. With the scheduling system we have in mind, you would absolutely get a lot of time on the water. And keep in mind, that your time on the water wouldn't be spent searching for smooth water. Every pass is a perfect pass.

@escmanaze This is the case with nearly everything, and why the rising generations are throwing away the old lifestyles that we all grew up with. More and more it is a renters mentality. I own a fintech firm and my young 25-35yo software developers have no interest in owning a home, buying a boat, etc... They are all about shared open office spaces, high-end condo on a yearly lease, and pay for fun on a per-use basis. Braden's situation above is typical. $6-10k per year to be a boating family. At least in his case he's getting out weekly. I'm sure we can all start naming off families with that same Malibu who are lucky to get out one weekend a month. Like I said, I've only recently gotten to the mindset of finally selling the truck and embracing the renter mindset. I can assert with full confidence that not only is it cheaper, but it's a better experience. More time for the actual fun part of boating. Would be even better if I didn't have to go through the 15-30minute hassle of rental paperwork each time. Schedule my time on an app and just show up and hop in the boat. Nice!!!