The terror of exponential growth drives doomsday scenarios. But Malthus and Erlich were not right. Note, I knew Paul Erlich and went to school with his daughter as a close friend, my dad was a close friend and we had many dinner table discussions. Time proved him wrong. Real life has a way of interfering with nice theoretical curves. The exponential Population Bomb did not explode.
Stan was just in Hawaii. The Pathogen Star (or whatever the name of the ship that discharged its Covid19 victims in Oakland over a week ago) stopped in Hilo and interacted with the locals 2 weeks ago on its way to Oakland. Zero transmission traced to that. Norway is exponentially overwhelmed by a handful of known vectors (snow skiers at a specific bar). It's a real crisis in Europe. There are so many variables we don't understand.
One thing that is known is the effect on workers in the tourist industry. I was stuck in Tahoe. Ski resorts were abruptly shut down on Sunday. Best snow of the year! Enough to last well into spring. Nope, no employment and no money in the economy. And no warning. Real human tragedies going on right now.
Nobody (including me) knows where this is going. If it goes away, the draconian measures fans will claim the measures worked - regardless of the other factors. If not, it's the fault of the horrible people who cheated the lockdown. Hmmm.
We don't know enough. One thing we are certain of is that a huge fraction of the population has been hurt severely economically. While an extremely small percentage of the population has become Ill.
People in the medical profession are (justly) terrified. Not only are they at massive risk of the infection, they will be forced to make the tough life and death triage decisions.
California is on lockdown.
I am terrified by the response to the crisis. My Canadian ski buddy took his fancy motorhome and self deported. I was miserably stuck in bad weather in Tahoe (would have been awesome if the lifts were spinning) until the hoarded rice and TP ran out. I live off rent - but nobody will be paying rent now. I still have to pay properly tax though.
I'm a pariah because I look at the long term welfare of society and I'm willing to let people die and have hospitals overwhelmed to make (preserve) a better world. Is flattening the curve of this one disease really worth the damage to the people who can't work or get the enjoyment from playing or being with friends (mental health matters too!)?
The Italians that are dying average age is around 80 years old. That's older than the average age in Italy (or the US). Old people die. It happens. Usually by pneumonia of some sorts (like this). Sad but inevitable.
My mom had a 94th birthday bash planned. She was going to see most of her family. Now she's isolated and no one can visit. Something will get her soon. But she is denied one of her late in life pleasurable experiences. She says the protection from Covid19 isn't worth what she's missing while she could still enjoy it.
I'm old enough that I won't have too many more chances to ski 3 feet of light powder again. That was taken away from me by the abrupt closing of all skiing last Sunday. If Worlds are cancelled, my arthritic body is unlikely to hold up for another chance. Putting life on lockdown has the strongest adverse effect on the very demographic that it's trying to save.
The cops chased everyone off the beach in San Diego today. Walks for exercise are probably the best thing to improve immune response - but not allowed by our government. The security guards (who we used to have a great friendly relationship with) hassled our tenant in Hawaii for walking on the beach - not sure if they called the cops on him but it's scary how weird people are getting over this. Some kids were playing volleyball on the beach last night. This morning the nets had been ripped off - not weird, flat out scary. Locking up people who have done nothing wrong, destroying the economy and forcing people out of their jobs is destroying the fabric of our society.
We drove past Manzanar (WW2 Japanese internment camp) on our way back from Tahoe. People, even Americans, are capable of awful things. George Orwell got the date wrong by 36 years (I have to reread 1984 since I'm not allowed to do anything else).
Sorry for the long rant.
Eric