@escmanaze @MarkM @Orlando76 @dthate @Than_Bogan I posted my thoughts on that video (as much of it as I watched) on another thread. I'm reposting here since you're talking about the same video:
I got 5 minutes into this video and noticed one of the most glaringly incorrect chains of logic that I’ve ever heard in my life, so bad that it immediately makes me alarmed about these doctors. Maybe the rest isn’t as bad as this, but in the first five minutes of the video they say:
- We tested about 280k people so far in CA
- Of the people we tested, about 33,000 were positive
- That’s a 12% positive rate among people tested
- So 12% of the entire population has this already
- If 12% of the entire population has the thing, then the death rate is not higher than the flu
My jaw is on the floor. 12% positive rate among those tested. There is a good reason to believe that the people being tested are not representative of the population as a whole. If a doctor decides you need to get tested then you are already much more likely to have covid than those that don’t get a test. The idea that the prevalence in the general population is the same as in the tested population is ludicrous. The fact that this doctor makes exactly that assumption and sees nothing wrong should cause alarms bells to go off for anyone watching this. And he uses that “fact” - that the virus is already widespread in the general population - as the premise for his arguments. Since his premise is wrong, I’m not sure anything he says next can be logically correct. The idea that the death rate for those with covid is the same as the flu is also based on this generalization and so is, of course, also completely inaccurate. Again, I haven’t watched more yet. After I realized what he did in the first five minutes I was in too much disbelief to continue, and frankly I’m going to have a hard time trusting anything else in this video.
From a second post:
another thing. That doctor either doesn’t understand the models that predicted millions of deaths originally, or is being vague about what he means. He rejects the models because they estimated millions of deaths when in reality we haven’t seen anything close to that. But as least with the Imperial College model the scenarios ran in the models that were associated with millions of deaths were scenarios in which there was no public response to the virus, or minimal response (social distancing but all businesses stay open). Those scenarios were never supposed to predict what would happen under lockdowns, etc! The lockdown scenarios in those models predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths, and that looks to be where we’re headed. Models aren’t perfect, but to an order of magnitude that one seems pretty good so far. He may be talking about other models I’m not as familiar with but he doesn’t specify.