Damn Coronavirus!

[MISkier]

@MillerTime38,

 

North Korea has, however, been having a high death rate from "lead poisoning" for anyone with a fever/cough...or anyone that knows that person...or anyone that says the words "fever" or "cough".

[UWSkier]

 

[Stevie Boy]

You Guy,s in the USA ratio to population, are a little behind us, but here in the UK we are about to enter into the stage where it is really going to ramp up, they predict 1000 deaths per day by Easter, I truly hope they are wrong, all age groups have been affected, this is nasty, the medical profession are putting their lives on the line, they are exceedingly brave and deserve Mega Respect.

Please be super careful and stay safe.

[6balls]

From the very front lines of New York...it's a time investment to watch this(nearly an hour) but it's very good in my estimation. We don't have time for randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trials to some degree...we have to learn lessons from the hot spots and apply them as best we can. None of this means get lazy on distancing from a public perspective, nor does it mean we should hoard purell...soap works fine. It will say it can't be viewed here and click to watch on vimeo...just click on it.

 

https://vimeo.com/399733860

 

 

[Stevie Boy]

[rawly]

Hilarious ??.....what’s this shopping trolley you refer of ?

[Kimbymon]

Because we all need to laugh, I was listening to Yacht Rock (stop laughing at me) and their latest tag line is: I’ll be WFB (working from boat). So if you need me that’s where I will be. ?

[BlueSki]

@Stevie Boy is there a chance that they gave you those groceries because the gun that you used as a pointer in the video was also pointed at the people that were so willing to share?

[Rednucleus]

Haven't seen this posted yet. Important public health reminders!

[6balls]

@rednucleus saw that the other day...wife showed it to me...great stuff, especially for MASH fans.

[2Valve]

Well, that was an experience.

 

I had the lovely mis-fortune of spending some time in the Isolation Ward at the local hospital, thinking I had the virus. The test is a real treat, let me tell ya. lol! But since the test in my state takes 2-3 days for results, you get transferred to the Isolation floor, where you're pretty much placed in lockdown.

 

The nurses and doctors were so good to me. I'm pretty low maintenance so I hesitated asking for anything, knowing it would take 10 min. to suit up before entering the room. What was key were a couple girls who just stayed by my bed, keeping my spirits up, talking. It's so appreciated when you're thinking the worst.

 

Then.... a couple days later, Courtney (a dead ringer for Amy Adams) comes into my room, with just her mask and gloves on (okay, she was fully clothed guys....), and says, "you see anything different? you notice I'm not wearing all the gear? you know what that means, right? You're negative!" She went on to say that 1/2 the patient's on my floor were positive and were being incubated, not able to breathe on their own, with some of them expected to die.

 

Nothing like great news in the middle of a crisis! I wanted to hug her but obviously it's not allowed.

 

Spent another day there getting my lungs working right again, but am sooo appreciative of the sacrifices our health care pro's are making right now. Most of them are doing double shifts, and not getting much sleep. You can see the exhaustion and sorrow over those that have been lost, on their faces.

 

Hopefully, we all remember to treat them as the heroes they are when this is all over. e.g.

 

Thanks for listening,

2Valve

[Andre]

Glad you're OK!

[dvskier]

I can’t imagine how that would feel? High anxiety!

[6balls]

@2Valve glad you are ok. Sorry you had a scare but awesome you had great care.

 

Our initial surge plan (we haven't been steamrolled yet locally) is to be working 72 hour shifts to minimize doc exposure at any given time and keep as many home as "bench strength" as possible. Phase 2 is more docs on at a time and 48 hour shifts. We were able to get some "virtual" assist from 7p to 7a in place, too. This also limits doc exposure as the virtual is a robot with computer on wheels so the interaction with doc/patient isn't an exposure, and isn't also wasting shield/gown/mask/gloves unnecessarily. This will really help the 72 hour shifts as it will provide some sleep breaks.

[ral]

@6balls, can you share a picture/link of the virtual assist you will be using?

[6balls]

@ral

https://horizonvirtual.net

Founder of this firm is a ICU doc I know and with whom I have worked on virtual ventures in the past.

 

[ral]

Thanks @6balls!

[klindy]

@6balls thats way cool and obviously useful in this scenario.

 

It reminds me of this far less useful and more annoying version of a similar idea —

[Shell]

I work @ UofM Hospital in A2 and we are working week on week off , Maise and Blue teams to try and limit our exposure.

[escmanaze]

I have started graphing state by state results the way I want to see the data presented. It seemed I couldn't find anywhere that was presenting it like this. I figure some of you may or may not be interested. Here is my facebook post showing it. It's public, so I assume you should be able to see it easily enough.

 

https://www.facebook.com/escmanaze/posts/10163305259925290?comment_id=10163305275155290&notif_id=1586667748271111&notif_t=feed_comment

[Orlando76]

@escmanaze for some reason I can’t seem to get it load, is it just me? But I’m pretty certain my internet has the Corona. I’m curious to see what you come up with.

[escmanaze]

A couple guys from Horton's backyard. I'm sure many will disagree with them. Even I look at one of their logical conclusions and kind of shake my head. Nevertheless, interesting to consider anyway.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndL0uSmKTQU

[escmanaze]

Turns out, apparently that video is getting all kinds of controversial. Oops.

[MarkM]

@escmanaze How so?

[escmanaze]

@MarkM Well I will try to be unbiased in my response in either direction.

 

They are essentially advocating for things to open back up significantly and essentially saying that their interpretation of the data is that this thing is turning out to be significantly less deadly than was initially believed.

 

So then, obviously, some folks thing they are wrong. And if you think they are wrong, then what they are saying could potentially be viewed by some as "dangerous" or "harmful" misinformation.

 

So on that premise, youtube has pulled their initial video off, an apparently all sorts of folks have already written big long rebuttals saying why these guys are idiots etc. But the heart of the controversy is when youtube deleted their video.

 

[liquid d]

The fact is "we are opening" up this economy. Several states have already, and Florida to start 5/1 along with 6 others. You can't bankrupt the nation for the virus. Too many people in this world can't just sit on their hands and do nothing.

 

There are now several states that will be in lawsuits for years for the complete shutdown. It was probably unconstitutional, but has been accepted by the masses to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals. The curve has been flattened in most areas. The hotspots can keep shutdown if they want. The "at high risk" people should self isolate.

 

Good luck!

 

[Orlando76]

@escmanaze thanks for posting video. I was able to watch it before Big Brother axed it. I pretty much agreed with them 99%. Amazingly even as a Panda Award Winner I was able to come up with the same numbers from the same public sources weeks ago and questioned why are we shutting the nation down for this and not smoking or driving a car? And the secondary consequences from lockdown are more widespread than the virus.

 

And why is a non-elected, non-appointed shrimp calling the shots rather our surgeon general?

[MarkM]

An opposing view from 2 emergency room doctors shall not be allowed. Youtube is against free speech and the sharing of ideas. Agree with the narrative or be shut down.

[Than_Bogan]

Remember when intelligent people used to discuss their different viewpoints and try to learn from each other? Ah, those were the days!

[dthate]

The Doc's from Bako sound far more compelling and sensible than others I have heard or read, especially Fauci.

Now it gets more interesting with youtube and "big tech" censoring them.

[Orlando76]

Faux-ci

[escmanaze]

Oh wow. Look at that. Youtube took it down again. Ok, here it is on the website of the original poster's news channel. They say they are going to leave it up and it is their original footage, so hopefully this won't turn into a bad link like the other one did.

 

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube?fbclid=IwAR2FtLrj3QBSf-r8HioSDxPtPi-Sci02nB91n_RPibxFEu95Tw0L23Uyf4k

[dthate]

Well our tech overlords know what is best for us,,,,,

 

Hope the are able to keep the post up.

[Orlando76]

It’s also on Accelerated Urgent Care’s Facebook page. I’d assume it’ll stay on there.

[BraceMaker]

@dthate - it does get into tricky territory; youtube, facebook, twitter (even waterski forums) have to own the fact that they create echo chambers for people to hear the content they want to hear with very exposure to the counter point, particularly if that counter point is not being shared to them. Which is what youtube/facebook are famous for - showing you only the stuff that you want to see and the stuff that keeps you engaged.

 

So specific to your comment so far you find that video to be compelling, as a physician they are providing data and they are an authority.

 

However, you also have to then take it with a grain of salt and realize that their statements specifically caused their professional organizations to call them out. There is a reason for this reaction and it has to do

 

https://www.aaem.org/resources/statements/joint-endorsed/physician-misinformation

 

"The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical society and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

 

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of AAEM and ACEP are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. AAEM and ACEP strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

 

Approved: 4/27/2020"

 

It should be understood how uncommon it is from a professional Academy (which exist to support their field/members of the industry) to be specifically issuing statements about individual actions of presumably their members.

 

And so you fast forwards a few days millions of people have taken their statements as facts because they are physicians and gotten their video distributed to people who at first believed in their comments because well they're doctors and they're saying something you want to believe in.

 

And then since you continue to want to believe the information then its censorship and conspiracy. Where if it was stuff we didn't believe in the first place or we actively knew was wrong we'd want that material to be removed - wouldn't we?

 

[dthate]

So no room for differing opinions? We cannot sort though ourselves?

 

It is best for youtube, facebook, tweeter etc.. to help us with that? I do not think they are "showing you only the stuff that you want to see and the stuff that keeps you engaged".

 

There is a lot of contradicting information, many agenda's that look suspect to me, and because of that I wear a tinfoil hat?

 

I know this "virus" is deadly and dangerous, but so is tyranny.

 

[ALPJr]

I read an article the other day that suggested several sources for reliable, accurate information, and several sources to be cautious with. If you’re interested in looking it up the article’s title is ‘Liberate Your Brain With Facts and Science’.

[The_MS]

There is only one credible source and that is Greta Thunberg. Just do what she says and be quite

[skispray]

@escmanaze @MarkM @Orlando76 @dthate @Than_Bogan I posted my thoughts on that video (as much of it as I watched) on another thread. I'm reposting here since you're talking about the same video:

 

I got 5 minutes into this video and noticed one of the most glaringly incorrect chains of logic that I’ve ever heard in my life, so bad that it immediately makes me alarmed about these doctors. Maybe the rest isn’t as bad as this, but in the first five minutes of the video they say:

 

- We tested about 280k people so far in CA

- Of the people we tested, about 33,000 were positive

- That’s a 12% positive rate among people tested

- So 12% of the entire population has this already

- If 12% of the entire population has the thing, then the death rate is not higher than the flu

 

My jaw is on the floor. 12% positive rate among those tested. There is a good reason to believe that the people being tested are not representative of the population as a whole. If a doctor decides you need to get tested then you are already much more likely to have covid than those that don’t get a test. The idea that the prevalence in the general population is the same as in the tested population is ludicrous. The fact that this doctor makes exactly that assumption and sees nothing wrong should cause alarms bells to go off for anyone watching this. And he uses that “fact” - that the virus is already widespread in the general population - as the premise for his arguments. Since his premise is wrong, I’m not sure anything he says next can be logically correct. The idea that the death rate for those with covid is the same as the flu is also based on this generalization and so is, of course, also completely inaccurate. Again, I haven’t watched more yet. After I realized what he did in the first five minutes I was in too much disbelief to continue, and frankly I’m going to have a hard time trusting anything else in this video.

 

From a second post:

another thing. That doctor either doesn’t understand the models that predicted millions of deaths originally, or is being vague about what he means. He rejects the models because they estimated millions of deaths when in reality we haven’t seen anything close to that. But as least with the Imperial College model the scenarios ran in the models that were associated with millions of deaths were scenarios in which there was no public response to the virus, or minimal response (social distancing but all businesses stay open). Those scenarios were never supposed to predict what would happen under lockdowns, etc! The lockdown scenarios in those models predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths, and that looks to be where we’re headed. Models aren’t perfect, but to an order of magnitude that one seems pretty good so far. He may be talking about other models I’m not as familiar with but he doesn’t specify.

[skispray]

And for what it's worth, the data I'm seeing suggests the fatality rate is under 1% - probably about 0.9% but maybe as low as 0.6%. That is way below the fatality rate based on current confirmed cases, so there is a large under count of how many people have already contracted this virus. However, 0.6% is 6X deadlier than the flu and 0.9% is 9X more deadly. These doctors claimed 0.3%, which you can only get if you make the kind of logical errors they made.

 

Also, I’m not wanting to be rude here. I just saw your discussion about the video and those were my reactions so I wanted to share.

[6balls]

You want to compare to influenza?

 

When is the last time an influenza season completely overwhelmed all medical capacity in New York (or other large metro's), overwhelmed morgues due to the increases in the dead? I can't imagine practicing in New York right now.

 

I don't lose patients often...and every time it hurts all of us who worked to save them, and all of their family members and friends who typically can gather and mourn together.

 

I can't imagine being in New York and losing patients at the rate they are, patients who are dying alone. If you haven't been there, if you have not looked into the eyes of the dying...I have to say it's a hard experience to understand.

 

Economic carnage aside, we need to be careful moving forward. If everyone is careful, and accepts a new normal of personal and public protection...we can presumabley get back to more personal and economic activity. My fear is "opening" means getting lazy with our hands, with touching our faces, and with a poor job of "keeping our droplets to ourselves" in public settings--meaning not choosing to do something as dopey simple as masking.

 

I'm an Iowa Hawkeye...I have Hawkeye masks. I see hunters with Camo masks. Hey @horton, BOS masks! Make this stuff a fashion accessory until we have a vaccine, wash the hell out of your hands, get after yourself for touching your face unless you have clean hands, keep your distance in enclosed spaces and, if everyone complies, we can get back at things to a significant degree.

[The_MS]

@6balls scores with a million dollar idea

[MarkM]

Half of the US deaths have occurred in New York City alone. If half the deaths had occurred in Montana instead, would it have still been appropriate to close down the entire country?

[BraceMaker]

@MarkM like anything population density is the risk, if half the deaths had occured in Montana with their decreased population density the public health sector would be scared shitless that'd be some unheard of crazy virulent disease (like measles + deadly) Unfortunately population density is also more or less a good indicator of economic value as well....

[MarkM]

So if half the deaths occurred in Montana the country would have flipped out more? I doubt it.

Besides that would change the entire “space” equation to more space means more death.

[UWSkier]

I'm pleased to see companies like Costco and JetBlue mandating the wearing of masks to consume their services. There are a ton of selfish morons on the innerwebs complaining about these changes, saying things like they won't re-up their Costco memberships. To them, I say "bye Felicia!" Less people to compete with me for free samples for when we do finally eventually get back to normal. Plus, you know those are the window licking mouth-breathers anyways.

[BraceMaker]

@MarkM - No you just made a "what if" type statement. "what if a disease isolatedly killed just a bunch of people in Montana and then didn't risk spreading anywhere else"

 

Which just highlights the problem with COVID-19. As the number of known cases goes up the case mortality rate goes down but the number of infected individuals is higher which means that the amount of time before the disease can be handled goes out further and further.

 

If it was so virulent than in your example it killed a bunch of people in Montana then sometimes diseases like that can burn through a population quickly kill a lot of people. But they tend to be the sorts of outbreaks that groups like the WHO understand how to control. Find people who are dying and back trace their exposures/travels and quarantine all the infected people (Think Ebola).

 

Instead we have a very transmittable disease that by the time you started seeing people showing up at the hospital you are 2 weeks behind the curve and for that one person quite a few other people have the illness and back tracing them becomes harder.

 

In the case of COVID-19 you have something that is hard to differentiate from a common cold until wham you've got a bunch of people clogging ICU's and dying, and is going to be most common in high population areas. Contagious disease, easily spread, mild symptoms with long incubation time from exposure to onset of illness with surprisingly severe symptoms in a good number of cases compared to everyone's favorite Influenza A.

[MarkM]

@BraceMaker

That’s not the question I asked.

[BraceMaker]

@MarkM - If you're question is "do Americans value the lives of people in Montana less"

 

That question just doesn't work. It would have had to be a crazy worse virus in Montana to generate the result - so the same numbers dead in Montana as in NYC again would scare public health shitless. There is no middle ground for that event to occur to make the thought experiment say what you want it to.

[dthate]

@skispray I am happy that it was still up / back up or whatever the case, so that you could view it and express your thoughts on it, while we still have a 1st amendment right to do so?

 

Their reason for taking down was it violated their "community standards", really?