Damn Coronavirus!

[Luzz]

@Horton @Sivota

IMHO the most important picture for everyone to understand now

[skispray]

@Luzz this version is also pretty compelling. It seems crazy, but this is exponential growth in action.

 

 

[BraceMaker]

@Luzz what is day 0 on the graph? First confirmed case?

[mmskiboat]

@horton Valid point. As most data suggests most will be fine 80% with mild symptoms. The social distancing and isolation is to lower the spread. There is no need for panic.

 

I'm more worried about the economic impact for business owners. Even if we flatten the curve and do not stress hospitals business owners have a rough next 6 months. I hope that governments help support them.

[Horton]

@mmskiboat for anybody with vulnerable family members this is not a laughing matter but generally speaking we are destroying the economy because we are afraid of a generally non-fatal illness. Now my mother is in her 80's it makes perfect sense that we are absolutely quarantining her. My wife and I and my five and a half year old daughter are not in peril. I would very gladly infect myself, be sick for 2 weeks if we could get normal life back on track.

[Horton]

this is interesting read

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

 

 

[6balls]

@horton if an independent risk factor is obesity, and 44% of the US is obese...you and I and our healthy family can say go ahead and infect us...but we have an interesting population problem on our hands here.

 

I also can't begin to desribe how many patients of mine are immunosuppressed due to either illness or the meds they take for illness--diabetes suppresses immunity--how many diabetics do we have in the U.S? How many more patients are aged (with co-morbid conditions) and/or have conditions like asthma, cancer and COPD.

 

Not only would the mortality rate be high in these patients, but the morbidity rate would be high, the hospitalization rate would be high...where we would infect all of the others we are trying to care for in the hospital with other illnesses as well as those caring for them--who can now no longer take care of critically ill non-covid patients for fear of infecting and killing them?

 

What the larger response is trying to do is NOT overwhelm the healthcare system--yes at an incredible economic cost.

 

The alternative is certainly most well folks doing ok, but overwhelming our systems such that MASH style decisions are being made about who lives and who dies. These 5 are unlikely to benefit, this one more likely, that one gets the ventilator and a chance at survival--the other four are on their own--we don't have enough ventilators.

 

While being respectful, understand that medical professionals like me are on the business end of those decisions should they become necessary. That kind of thing in the past has truly been a fictional movie, or a more reality based story like Chernobyl. It has never been U.S. healthcare, where we have not rationed life-saving care in any way due to the fact that we don't have the resources to (attempt to) save everyone.

 

From an ethical standpoint...would you give up your elderly/sick/immunocompromised loved one for the greater good because resources are better spent on someone "healthier"? Who would decide who better gets the(potentially) life saving resources? There would be no time for committees...just real time decisions.

 

The economics suck...but this is real and I totally understand your desire to pay the price and go to normalcy. Having said that your healthy two-week illness and return to health is not practical reality for the national population. I want normalcy back just as bad as anyone...but responsibly it's not going to be here for some time.

 

This forum is likely one of the healthiest out there...we have to understand the population health picture. No one is winning here. A vaccine when it comes will be a game changer.

[Horton]

@6balls okay you are now the official BallOfSpray Corona virus correspondent. Do you want your own thread? I'm not kidding. All of us without medical training are trying to decode this thing and you seem to know exactly what's going on.

[6balls]

@horton my biz is not having threads or blogs...but in the last week alone while total numbers may seem unimpressive thus far, deaths are up by 3.6X in the U.S and cases up 6X in just one week. Lots of us are good at math, right?

[chris55]

Totally agree with @6balls . I work at the Geneva university hospital and in 3 days we had 5 patients in ICU and tonight we have 20 patients and 8 with respiratory help and we are not at the peack at all. The hospital system can crash if people don't stay at home ....everyone......we must stay at home and/or keep a 6feet distances etc....

Good luck guys in the USA

[6balls]

If you could double a penny every 2 days, how fast do you make a fortune(it's quick). The doubling rate of cases is every 2 days. If we gathered as usual????

 

Any increase is an exponent, any decrease is an exponent. Healthy or sick, young or old, we are in this one together, folks. This is the reason for what seems a response that very much alters our historical lifestyle in the U.S.

 

It's not that we can't do it together, but we had best be wise, and it's far from free.

[Luzz]

@BraceMaker I don't think it matters for this graph. However, in graphs comparing countries, the y-axis is standardized as the day in which they have 100 positive cases.

[chris55]

If somone haven't seen it, Arnold did this video, not CP's Dad....

And for the record in the ICU in Geneva we have patients from 21 to 80 years old so it can hit young, middle age, old ....https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1239383795205169152?s=20

If we live until 80 years, 4 weeks or even 6 weeks in our lifetime.....it is worth to be very careful and stay home for that periode. If anyone have questions about what is going on here in Europe, ask me and I will try to give you a good and not fake answer

[Stevie Boy]

My Daughter works in the Biotech Industry in California and has been involved, the Virus is for real and there are things you do not want to know about it, that's why Governments around the world are afraid, it is not going away anytime soon and is very likely to keep re-appearing, from what I understand any immunity you build up is only short term.

I think the Media have created mass hysteria and panic, which does not help the situation, how much Toilet Roll, Milk , Chicken, etc do you need, people should think of others and not be so selfish, at this rate Mad Max may become a reality.

Look after Yourselves, Family, and Elderly Neighbours, Stay Safe.

[mmskiboat]

I was just talking with my godmother who lives in England. She is doing well but this was one comment that stuck out:

 

"Everyone is concerned and some panicky - Having lived through one war I am mentally equipped better than others"

 

She was down in the tube when above was getting bombed. Being asked to stay at home does not seem to much to ask. I do not mean to downplay the economic cost of this and I hope that there are ways that business owners can get compensation.

 

I have been following this since Jan and only looking at peer reviewed and evidenced based reports. It has been hard to watch things unfold when we knew what was going to happen and most countries were just being reactive and not proactive (still the case).

 

I cannot imagine being in Italy and losing a loved one and not being able to have a funeral. This is a common thing now, if we do not stop doing 1/2 measures North America is going to follow Italy more than South Korea.

 

Again not a time to panic as most 80% will have mild symptoms.

 

 

 

 

[cruznski]

Our site - the Pond- in San Jose is closed down for the time being in concert with the 7 county Shelter-In-Place health order (in our case Santa Clara County) we will see if it gets lifted early April.

[aupatking]

@mmskiboat I'm not certain which thing in my comment you took offense to but my point was simply that the numbers are not correct, at all, if all we are doing is counting people infected who show symptoms. What about those infected who show no symptoms or, at least, not up to the level of hospitalization? This article gave a number where we didn’t have one. It would be the same as saying the mortality rate of cancer is 80%. That number may be accurate, if we are including only stage 4+ but it is not showing an accurate number for all infected.

I’m not saying, and I don’t believe the article did either, that the elderly are the only group at risk. I believe we are all at risk. My comment about the elderly was likely just my personal concern for my parents coming through in my writing.

The number of confirmed infected in the US was at 9400+ at around 9:00am. It will surpass 14,000 tonight. It’s serious

[jimski]

What’s going on in California @Horton

I hear the whole state has been quarantined and not aloud out of there houses

[Sethro]

I’m disturbed by local governments misuse of the term shelter in place. Someday we might need to actually shelter in place, which essentially means one finds a safe spot and stays there until an all clear or evacuation order is given, and citizens won’t understand due to past experiences. This is emergency management 101, and I don’t understand how mayors and other city/village leaders are issuing shelter in place orders followed by exception after exception after exception where one is allowed to leave. The only explanation is they aren’t consulting with someone who understands the concept. They should be ordering travel/movement restrictions whatever they choose to call it.

[Splasheye]

I would urge anyone quibbling about the calculation of mortality rates or comparing this to the flu to watch this Sky News eyewitness report. UK and USA are about two weeks behind Italy.

Inside Italian Hospital

[Jody_Seal]

 

[jpattigr]

Interesting site with real time know numbers. IF anyone has doubts, follow the Money! When huge companies, pro sports, resorts and retail are all closing what does tell you? They want to lose profits??? It tells me this threat is very real!https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[mmskiboat]

This is one of the most trusted site for monitoring covid-19 cases:

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

 

Direct Link to Interactive Map:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

 

 

[UWSkier]

This is far and away the most informative tracking site I've found. They cite references for their numbers and do a good job of presenting data of individual states testing (including things like percentage of positive tests, which varies a surprising amount).

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

[Jody_Seal]

Wrestlemania with out a audience is different!

[klindy]

@jpattigr Easily the more informative site I've seen. I've been tracking that site for a couple weeks now. The data is incredible. Very detailed information formatted where it makes sense.

[XR6Hurricane]

@6balls Thank you for your insight, and this is the point that I have been trying to make with people. I'm astounded at the corporate manager "geniuses" who sit in "risk management" meetings at work, who don't get it or don't care. They'd still be flying back and forth to Europe even now, for 1-2 day meetings instead of picking up the phone, if we hadn't banned it. They must have been busy passing love notes in 6th grade math class when exponents were being explained. I picked up my stuff from work on Monday and have been working from home all week. My father is 74, diabetic, and had a triple bypass three years ago. He's the only family I have and I'm his source for food and medicine so we can keep him isolated. I have to stay healthy. The boss wasn't happy, but it's not his decision. It's mine.

 

I like everyone else feel like everything I have ever worked for is in jeopardy, but this too shall pass.

 

P.S. Hope you have been well and are hanging in there thru this.

 

[Luzz]

 

This is the situation in Bergamo, my hometown province. In case you needed more proof to take this seriously

[liquid d]

There is definitely some bs going on. To say that a country of 1.6 billion people has just stopped it, is either lying, or the world is not getting the full story. Some things are just not adding up.

I'm no "grassy knoll" kind of individual, but something smells fishy.

[dthate]

@liquid d do you not trust the "chicoms"?

[matthewbrown]

@liquid d I believe you, you have already proved yourself in the past by being one of the first guys to call bs on dr Jim.

[Horton]

data...

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

[david_quail]

@Horton I have had moments thinking "I'll go around licking elevator buttons and doorknobs and get this over with too." This however assumes that immunity is actually built up (which isn't clear) and that it hasn't/won't mutate to become more problematic for young healthy people (it's already mutated several times).

My wife is an ICU physician (and infectious disease sub specialist), and part of a Canadian board managing the national strategy, so I'm exposed to a lot of the data, and the data is indeed alarming (not just for old people). Of all the stuff I've heard from her though, I thought this article walked through the problem and potential solution the best. Data. As you say. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56?fbclid=IwAR1XqMmHuns86NW4jJsMmehL1cMyRn2dWq-5937BYzapPytTMsxEPphRDH8

[A_B]

It has shut down shipments from China.

Where do a lot of today’s skis come from??

[jayski]

@A_B most Chinese factories are up and running again and near full production, I received a letter this week from the Kent watersports group that their factory is 80% employees back to work and those missing are office staff which are working from home...Relayed that their shouldn't be any delay this year on equipment

[ALPJr]

Godspeed @Luzz

[The_MS]

Where were all the honest protective media journalists back in Oct when this broke loose in China? I think they were a little busy

[Luzz]

@liquid d Although I agree with you that it is inconceivable that 1.6bl people stop entirely, the reality is that tens of millions stopped ENTIRELY (no jog, no meetings less than 10, just no). There are a lot of Ph.D students and candidates in my dept. and college from China, and they told me stories two months ago of the intense restrictions that businesses and population at large had to undergo.

 

Two general comments for people to reflect (sorry @Horton, I live with data about this in my daily life).

 

1. The virus is moving from Far East to West. Consider the cultural shift. In the Far East, when government speaks, people listen, whether because they have no choice (e.g., China) or because they have a high sense of civic duty (e.g., South Korea & Japan). In Europe, people "tend" to listen to government, but you do have the oddballs here and there doing as they please (I think it is unnecessary to say how the oddball screws up the efforts of many others). However, Italians and Europeans are showing a sense of civic duty that goes beyond what I had hope for. Now we move further East, and we get here in the US where, while patriotism is high, the sense of civic duty is low. My hope is that people understand the simple idea of "act as if you have the virus"

 

2. The

maybe needed to be put into context. Bergamo is one of the richest areas in Europe and the hospital in the video is one of the most well-funded and advanced in Europe. And they are struggling to keep up.

[MattP]

@Luzz Your insight is always appreciated!

 

This article gives good reasoning to why the areas we are seeing are the hardest hit and also why Russia has seen so few cases. Russia is reporting 306 cases with 16 recovered & 1 death. (I know state controlled media take it with a grain of salt)

Researchers Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19 Based on Climate Where Virus Appears to Thrive

 

Direct Link to paper

[The_MS]

The reason that it appears to be going Far East to West is due to shutting down all China flights when we did. What should have happened is that on the same day the US shut down China flights, Europe should have done the same. The result of them not doing so should have been for the US to shut down all international flights to Europe the same day as we shut China down. We would be another 2 weeks ahead of the curve and it would have bought us more time to prep.

 

 

[mmosley899]

@jayski the problem now is shipping, costs have skyrocketed! There is very low availability of ships and planes moving product. Fed Ex has completely stopped shipping to and from certain regions of China.

[Killer]

It's pretty amazing people are still skeptical at this point and laughing or joking about this. USA is blowing up now, no way around it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

15k new cases today in the US. It's doubling more than every 2 days. Run some math on that.

 

God speed to you if you need medical assistance over the next few months.

 

 

[LoopSki]

It's amazing how many business are essential all of a sudden! I know everyone needs to make a living, but if people don't listen, this will just last longer. I'm doing my part and staying home other than grocery and booze. Alot of people will get it , let's just not get it all at once as to not overwhelm. I actually think I already had it back in Jan. Came back from a convention in Vegas with over 40000 attendees and half from China. When I returned home I had all the same symptoms. I hope I can't get it twice !

[6balls]

@loopski it's possible in theory...mutates a lot. @killer that worldometers site is really cool...just data and keeps the politics out. March 20-21 were pretty stable, now today it's popping with new cases and new deaths on March 22. We are hitting the exponents.

[UWSkier]

Maybe next time we should let Taiwan have a seat at the WHO... And maybe next time we shouldn't puff out our chests, talk about how we have the best healthcare system, and say "can't happen here." Too bad thousands have to die to learn these and other lessons.

[Wish]

To coincide more with the thread title, I was thinking this evening when skiing and wanting to shorten the line and test my limits....should I ?? Should any of us be risking injury knowing tournaments have been pushed back and the medical community has their hands full. Do they need us coming in with recreational injuries? Yes injury can occur at any time in an opening pass or at your hardest pass. But pushing limits increases the risk. That’s just fact. So, I did not shorten. And probably will not try to push the limits but rather hone technique, stamina and mental acuity for some time. Blessed to be able to still ski and perhaps more often now. But putting others at risk by taking resources away from the medical community to deal with my recreational injury does not seem very responsable. Food for thought.

[liquid d]

OH my god! just stop. The world's gone crazy. If you get hurt , give me call. I've a case of duct tape and beer.

 

[Zman]

Good point @Wish

 

[Wish]

@liquid d just food for thought....I’ll take that ? though.

[6balls]

@wish right now we are not going to take care of your recreational injuries until further, further notice. No non-emergent surgeries.