Can 43 be run?

[MDB1056]

The better question may be how far down the line at 43 realistically is even achievable? Maybe this has been asked and answered / discussed before but I don't recall seeing it of late. Yes we can all look back at the progress made in the past 10-20 years of 38-39-41, however there is a point where the physical limitations rise to a new high, performance plateaus and where better boats, skis, and skiers can't compensate. We're all so used to seeing 41 run regularly, and  1 or 1+  at 43.   But is it possible to even hold on to more than 2+ to get further down the line?  How long ago was it Nate's record was set? 2013 I believe. As not moved by even 1/2 ball in 10 yrs, more reason to think it may not.  Any 7 ft. skiers coming up that we know of? 

It's a great time to be an old guy skier...................................☺️ 

[BrennanKMN]

If 2.5 has been run, I am sure the rest can be run. That tells me it is physically possible, regarding everything else, I assume it is just a matter of time. 

It is a frequency thing in my mind. The more times through 41 the more looks at 43. As more and more people get further and further down 41, we'll see more and more progress on 43. There are very few skiers that are getting 'regular;' looks at 43. There are a lot of skiers that are getting 'regular' looks at 41. 

 

[liquid d]

no.

[jgills88]

In line with what was said in the first comment, a couple years ago Nate had a 3@43 score disallowed due to some sort of boat issue (it was either a bad time, or bad path, I don't remember).  That tells me that the pass is possible. 

Running it in a tournament has the major hurdle of needing at least two people to run -41 for an attempt at -43 to happen. But I think that if we gave the top skiers as many attempts at -43 that they wanted, someone would turn 3, and maybe even hit 4

[ScottScott]

@jgills88 other skiers scores are irrelevant as to whether a skier can continue on to see how far 43 they can go as long as they run 41.

[jgills88]

@ScottScott in a vacuum, you're right, but whats happened a couple of times this season is one skier hits 6@41 and does not continue onto the 43 pass because they don't need to, either for seeding or placement. 

Based on this pattern, we'd need one skier to run -41 as a lower seed in the finals of a tournament to see an attempt at -43. Otherwise what happens is the top seed will attain the score to beat and ski away with the win. 

 

We see attempts at -43 when two skiers run -41.

To give another example, more than once Freddy Krueger has gone 1 and done in jump events after hitting the winning jump at 230ft. He could take his next 2 to go further and further, but he often doesn't. Now,  if the 2nd place jump were in the 240ft range, odds are he'd take more attempts at the ramp and possibly break a record

[ColeGiacopuzzi]

I promise you just turning 1 ball and getting to 2 ball at 43 is absolutely next level insane. It will be a longgggg time before we even see just the back half of that pass. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by ColeGiacopuzzi

[BraceMaker]

What's the highest practice score observed?  You'd assume anyone who has a couple in tournament would have a couple more in practice.  Always rumors Andy was going deeper in practice.

[markn]

  No doubt, ZO combined with surepath make records a heck of a lot more difficult than in times past.

[buechsr]

1 hour ago, jgills88 said:

@ScottScott in a vacuum, you're right, but whats happened a couple of times this season is one skier hits 6@41 and does not continue onto the 43 pass because they don't need to, either for seeding or placement. 

Based on this pattern, we'd need one skier to run -41 as a lower seed in the finals of a tournament to see an attempt at -43. Otherwise what happens is the top seed will attain the score to beat and ski away with the win. 

 

We see attempts at -43 when two skiers run -41.

To give another example, more than once Freddy Krueger has gone 1 and done in jump events after hitting the winning jump at 230ft. He could take his next 2 to go further and further, but he often doesn't. Now,  if the 2nd place jump were in the 240ft range, odds are he'd take more attempts at the ramp and possibly break a record

I'm not familiar with a recent example of someone foregoing a record attempt in the finals, whether they secured the win already, or not.  I'd agree might not happen in earlier rounds but I can't think of a time someone has skied to the dock as opposed to take a crack at it?  Granted, it's usually Nate and as I understand it he's not tied to a Boat Co., but still.  

[dchristman]

David Akers at 5'10" is to the point of running into 38 off after 4 years. Imagine what a retired basketball player like Yao Ming might do.  We need to somehow challenge some of those giant 7'6" ex-pro basketball players to start skiing and get to and through 43 off. 

[rockdog]

So far off I can't even see that far.

[Drago]

I say yes, but not by anyone we know yet. Certainly not @liquid d

[Bruce_Butterfield]

Yes. Just a matter of time. IMO a Michael Jordan “type” will perform a lot better than a Yao Ming “type”. 

Athletic ability will trump physical stature every time. 
 

just because @liquid dis past his expiration date has no bearing on real skiers. 

[UWSkier]

Height in this sport seems like it's only an advantage to a certain point.  After that, mistakes become amplified.  Doesn't help that taller guys tend to be heavier, and ZO likes guys with bird-like figures.

[TSki]

@BraceMaker Chris Parrish has posted video in the past of him getting outside/kind of turning 3 ball at 43, but I don’t recall he was in a position to continue. This was practice, so no way to know if the score would have been valid in tournament settings. This occurred in Washington the day prior to a clinic he held that I attended, and he was really stoked on it and talking about it like it was not normal, even for practice (like maybe it was the only time it’d happened, at least on video). I imagine Nate has done similar, but would be surprised if it has happened more than a few times.

[lpskier]

Considering Freddy is 47 and has no need to take unnecessary risks or to prove himself to anyone, one jump for the win and ski in makes absolute sense, unless his training and the conditions are such that setting a record is feasible. The likelihood of a season (or career) ending fall in slalom while trying to set a record,  even at 43, is far less than in jump. 

[jjackkrash]

Surepath seems like a bigger impediment than ZO, IMO.  And just wait till GPS and an algorithm steer the boat with no mercy, no love.  

[chrislandy]

3 hours ago, jjackkrash said:

Surepath seems like a bigger impediment than ZO, IMO.  And just wait till GPS and an algorithm steer the boat with no mercy, no love.  

You see as a bad thing, but is it really? When PP was brought in, the pull consistency improved allowing more people to get higher scores, same for ZO, it will be the same for self tracking when it comes in. It will allow a grassroots skier to have the same boat pull as a top athlete. They could then train irrespective of the driver etc... consistency breeds results, so will 43 be run, yes quite probably. The other thing is mental, it took a long time to break the 4min mile and sub 10s 100m as it was seen as a barrier, once the barrier has been broken more follow

 

Plus no doubt, it will allow the manufacturers to add anther 20k to the boat price😨 

[ScottScott]

When you think about how long its been since mens record was set, and how little it has been challenged, its also significant to consider whether he got outside of 3 ball 6 years ago BECOUSE of the out of tolerance boat path or DISPITE it. 

[lpskier]

Nate’s three was at Swiss. Bad boat path. What a surprise! It was dark and no one could see. The driver (Chad Scott, I think) was lucky he could find his way back to the dock. That was not a case of bad driving or friendly driving. It was doing the best you could with the conditions you had. 
 

My bet is that Nate breaks the record again, at least once, before he is finished. 

[NoahVieke]

I’d say with automated driving it will not be run.  If you want to argue that the driving will be more consistent be my guest.  But before you continue with that line of thinking, stake it out on the beach. 
 

place a buoy 11.5 meters from a pole on the beach and then grab a rope/handle and look at the reality of 9.75m (43). 
 

once you’ve done that, come back to this thread and give me your answer.  
 

but I will say there is proof Nate can get around 3 with a boat that is in tolerance.  He did it a few years ago in a class c that was running sure path.  
 

very big difference between “in tolerance” (going to the max allowed) and “straight” (zeros or +1 on SP) which is what automated driving would be.  

[AdamCord]

It won't be run without a step change improvement in skis. The tech we have developed thus far isn't getting us there, but that doesn't mean a ski that can get someone through 43 can't be made...

[dchristman]

Get on it @AdamCord! We need a ski that takes height into account as well as weight so I don't have to get that leg-lengthening surgery...  I need an XS-short please!

[chrislandy]

13 minutes ago, dchristman said:

Get on it @AdamCord! We need a ski that takes height into account as well as weight so I don't have to get that leg-lengthening surgery...  I need an XS-short please!

[swc5150]

I agree, it'll have to be an NBA tall guy to run it.  A Manute Bol tall guy may have an easier shot at 7'7". 

[markn]

When I first started skiing and driving tournaments with PP, the time tolerances were MUCH wider.  ZO, in addition to different pull, ended the wide tolerances making records harder to come by.

[BraceMaker]

2 hours ago, NoahVieke said:

 

very big difference between “in tolerance” (going to the max allowed) and “straight” (zeros or +1 on SP) which is what automated driving would be.  

I personally think the in tolerance will be expanded if automated driving removes friendly driving or at least we could trust a wider tolerance as not being favorable.

My question about practice scores is based on if the world's best with their friendliest driver.  If at their home sites they aren't cranking 4 at 43 then that's an answer to the question of where people can get 

I think automated driving will actually bring up the sport.  To give youth skiers behind their mom on a weekday night the same pull as world class skiers get at a class R from childhood?  Every pass automated to be as straight as possible?  And then for the guys sitting in a boat on a 90 degrees day for 8 hours back and forth and back and forth running a school? How much less fatigue for the drivers?

How about those guys who have a friend that can drive a boat... Ish.  Who just cannot go straight down the course at speed while the current crop of skiers may see a shift what will the next generation look like when they've spent their life with every pass being super high quality record class sets every time they ski?

[The_MS]

I am with @liquid d

no flippen way

[Vernon Reeve]

I wonder if they could get more than 3 buoys at 42 off.  Might make viewing more interesting if so.

[UWSkier]

On the automatic steering thing... How can that possibly work without being super harsh?  A good driver can know/feel when a skier is in scramble mode and anticipate/pre-correct path based on what the skier is doing.  Auto-steer is only ever going to react, not anticipate.  Imagine someone like a Jon Travers or Robert Pigozzi in scramble mode.  Those guys can brutalize a boat and driver.

ZO made it so that a skier has to be light and flowy.  Imagine auto-steer will be 10x more of this.

And for that reason, I don't think 43 will ever be run.  You'd need to be 6'10" 120lbs.

[Adam Caldwell]

I honestly think it can be run.  But it might take some time still.   

43 off requires the ski to do a lot of incredible things in very short time.  In my world, running all kids of crazy setups, its very obvious that the ski - boots - fin configuration have the ability to make a pass nearly impossible to run, OR, almost easy.   A big part of that is based on the skis ability to stay on course at the right speeds at the right times.  I don't know that it will happen on a production type ski.  It will need to have special torsion and flex characteristics and possibly some hardware on the fin that has not yet been designed or figured out.

The challenge is figuring out exactly how that ski needs to behave to run the pass.  And to figure that out, you need to ski it. Which no one does because it beats the shit out of you.  Last time I was there in a tournament skiing at 34 I was seeing stars when I stood up into 2 ball.  And only ever got a clean turn and inside 3 ball maybe once or twice.

The cruise will be a big part of it also.  I think the ZO will need to "run" more ahead of the skier during the preturn such that the skier doesn't spend as much time without the rope as they come in from the apex of the turn.  And with the potential for there being a MASSIVE speed delta between the boat and the skier coming out of the ball, I think the boat will need a longer delay before it tries to respond. But as it does, it needs to climb very progressively as the centripetal force alone is enough to rip you OTF through the wakes.  I'm not sure how the ramp rates in ZO are configured, if they're linear, step, or some exponential wave form, but my guess is it needs to be such that it will continue to get out in front of the skier.   So, basically less gas behind the boat, but then keeping the throttle up as the skier starts riding away from the handle.

Im surprised Joel Poland hasn't tried to run it on his trick ski yet. 

[mike_mapple]

36, ive seen my dad get to 3, at 34 he got to 4 but had to throw the ski around it, it is a whole different beast that 41, I have to agree with @AdamCord about the skis changing will improve the chances..

 

We used to always have a fun day every now and then and let people try the pass at what ever speed they wanted to give them and idea what the gate was like. That used to always make me laugh!

[jjackkrash]

10 hours ago, chrislandy said:

You see as a bad thing, but is it really? 

No, I don't, at least not if it's fair and consistent.  I don't believe the driver should try and should help the skier in any way shape for form.  It's the skier's job to beat the boat with the boat traveling in a fair and consistent path as close to straight as is possible.  But, right now, I believe "good driving"--as most pro level skiers think of it--as being designed to help the skier within tolerances to make the pull softer and produce better scores.  

[B_S]

Can anyone explain why it goes 41 to 43? Doesn't make any sense to me the 2 previous shortenings are in 1.5' increments, but then it increases to 2' for the most difficult pass. Logic would dictate a 42 pass in between.

[mike_mapple]

Meters if im not mistaken?

[ral]

41 off is an approximate number (10.36 m). The exact number is 10.25 m. It goes from 38 off every 0.5m: 11.25, 10.75, 10.25, 9.75 (43 off) and then 9.50 (0.25m).

Edited June 9, 2023 by ral

[The_MS]

After reading what @adamhcaldwell wrote, I am totally convinced. No flipping way 

[Bruce_Butterfield]

@B_S it’s because we (the US) caved and gave in to the metric system    All “official” line lengths are in meters.  All shortening’s after 38 (11.25m) are in 1/2 m increments. But us goofy Americans still think in “feet off”. 

[B_S]

Yep, I was thinking Murican!

[dbutcher]

@Bruce_Butterfield I am going to forward you an email that you may find interesting about the history of line lengths, the metric slalom course etc.  There is a reason we Americans think in "feet off" to this day.  It is too off topic to post here.

[ETskier]

Nate has no incentive to break his own record. Until somebody else breaks  it (or gets too comfortably close), or a sponsor pays him to do it. Whitney is close to Regina these days and may set a new record soon, but only behind her boat sponsor.  But, Regina will have to wait to be behind a Malibu to answer. 

Laser cruise control will kill off the rest of us who are barely hanging on since ZO was implemented. 

[B_S]

@ETskier Nate chose to run 41 in a tail wind last weekend. You dont think he had getting further down 43 in mind?

[ScottScott]

@B_S I'd disagree with that reasoning, many skiers had struggled with gates from the other end. Besides I don't think anyone is going to risk not running, or doing as well as others, on a 41off pass where the tournament will be won or lost, to get a better shot at 43. 

 

That being said, I don't think he is any less motivated to break his record not having a boat sponsorship with bonuses. Im thinking D3 would have a pretty nice reward for him anyway.

[BraceMaker]

35 minutes ago, B_S said:

@ETskier Nate chose to run 41 in a tail wind last weekend. You dont think he had getting further down 43 in mind?

Whats 6@41 no continuation? 120 balls right.

So you just pull up scores of 120 and then check the event and who was running and then other scores from that event.

I would find any score of 116 or 120 to indicate either 6 no continuation or a 0 at the next pass... but it could also be a drop at the dock.

[BraceMaker]

4 minutes ago, ScottScott said:

@B_S 

That being said, I don't think he is any less motivated to break his record not having a boat sponsorship with bonuses. Im thinking D3 would have a pretty nice reward for him anyway.

Until someone spells out the terms of silver spray sport sponsorship I would also tend to agree.  Action MC silver spray SN.  Is silver spray really not a boat sponsorship?

[ForrestGump]

Nope.  Getting to 3 once or twice doesn't tell me it can be run.  Getting to 4 would start to lead me to believe it could.  But we've not seen anyone doing it.  

[aupatking]

It was said that 39 and then 41 would never be run. We are reaching a mechanical limit though. We don’t have the freak athleticism, at least not in high numbers, that something like basketball does. And height, by itself, is pretty useless. If the Adams could get Nate on the 95, it would be fun to watch

[Jordan]

Nate won every event that he enterred last year and this season so far. I don't think a ski change is either required or is likely.

[rockdog]

9 hours ago, Jordan said:

Nate won every event that he enterred last year and this season so far. I don't think a ski change is either required or is likely.

No but if you’re THE guy who’s pushing the boundaries of what is possible, I’d be skiing a plain black of every ski on the market (Back home of course with only your trusted crew)😉. How else are you going to know how far that boundary can be pushed?