MasterCraft down sizing?

[Jody_Seal]

[motoxr]

Thank you for sharing. Always sad to hear that sort of news.

[Horton]

The whole boat industry is off 30%. We are in a boom-bust cycle caused by covid / interest rates / inflation /supply chain. Expect to see similar struggles across other similar industries. 

Recall the lack of boats on Ski-It-Again for a few years and then all of a sudden there were a lot of boats & prices are softening. If you were watching the used boat market none of this should be surprising.

 

 

[VermontSkier]

I'd be curious what demand looks like in wake vs. ski boats. My hunch is that they are selling all the ski boats they make, so hopefully production of ski boats won't slow down as much as wake boats. Fingers crossed!

 

[Horton]

@VermontSkier what i have heard is the WHOLE marine industry is facing a slowdown. 

[dbutcher]

Did you notice that the post from the Mastercraft team member that Jody posted is an "anonymous" team member and when you click on his web address you get nothing more than is in the original post.  Unless I am missing something, it makes me wonder and question.  Last I heard buyers still had to wait months for a new ProStar.  

[Horton]

@dbutcher unfortunately the news is accurate 

[BraceMaker]

in 2008 the headline was mastercraft lays off hundreds.

 

 

[tjs1295]

Interesting. I watched a couple news clips from that area. I’ve been out of touch with the industry as of late. Didn’t realize it was down. Makes sense though. Those interest rates probably make a big difference if you’re financing. 

[BraceMaker]

20 hours ago, tjs1295 said:

Interesting. I watched a couple news clips from that area. I’ve been out of touch with the industry as of late. Didn’t realize it was down. Makes sense though. Those interest rates probably make a big difference if you’re financing. 

The rates make a huge difference but.  

Just using the 20 or so houses next door to us nearly all of them already have 2 new boats in the last 3 years.  People who for 10 years had the same boat have upgraded their docks and lifts and added an additional boat or jetskis.  What used to be a sparse shoreline now looks like a marina with stuff everywhere.

Many of these are second homes but even the ones that aren't the pandemic showed people how to work remote.  So all the CFO/Attorney/CEO types went hmmm you mean I can do my job with less commuting and enjoy my lake house?  Sold.  Well they all bought their stuff already many waiting a good 12-18 months for it to be delivered and now its all there, but now their offices are open and they're asking their staff to return to the office and they're shifting back to being in the office and all that new stuff isn't being used much.

So the demand is dropping, people now own stuff they have to pay off and they're not using it because they are back to working in their offices more.  And while trickle down doesn't work from a profits/income perspective it certainly works in the boat market.  If people aren't buying new boats then people aren't buying boats.

[braindamage]

^^ sad, but true

[tjs1295]

@BraceMaker Great points. I've noticed a lot of new stuff around me as well. That's why I thought things were still going full steam ahead. I knew harder times were coming, but was surprised by the MasterCraft news, and Horton mentioning the entire industry is down 30%. I guess it's already happening.

[chaloux]

It's not only boats, I believe it's all toys. A good childhood friend's family just sold their Yamaha dealership. Pre-purchased snowmobiles for the next season are called "snow-checks."  Typically for a slow year they'd have around 20 snow-checks. Good years up to 100. I was chatting with the old owner recently and the new owner has one snow-check. One.  Now we'll see how long it takes for prices to drop back to normal - I'm talking used here, not sure new will ever really return unless new orders drop catastrophically.

[Horton]

@chaloux 100% yes it is going to be the same for many industries and not just "toys".  My guess is prices will never go back to near where they were. The cost of materials and labor has gone up so much that it is the new normal.  

[Dano]

The biggest problem is that wages have not kept up with inflation.  It was a problem before covid.  It’s just plain obvious in the wake of covid.  Covid caused people to re allocate funds for things like boats, motorcycles, vacation homes, etc…. Big ticket items.  But it wasn’t wages that paid for it.  It was generally savings or real estate equity being re distributed via sale or refinance.  Now that money is spent and people are left with wages alone and things are tight so spending has ceased.  Prices will come down a bit and wages will go up until things become more balanced again, then the cycle begins again where prices will ramp up until wages no longer are sufficient.  

[Horton]

Had some interesting conversations on this subject in the last few days. It really is a good news / bad news situation.

The “good news” for skiing is that ski boats are still very much in demand. ProStar orders and production schedules are solid. Considering the bad news below I am not really celebrating.  

The bad news: the industry is down 30%. In addition to what you have heard about MasterCraft, both Nautique & Tige have also laid off factory workers plus Malibu closed its factory for a month.

 

Additionally, I have had some confirmation on the Boom/Bust theory. Apparently, the marine industry typically goes through a 7 or 8-year cycle. Because of covid the upswing extended to 11 years making the bust even rougher.

[Mastercrafter]

There are a tonnnnnn of late model boats of all types for sale around here now, mostly wakeboard and surf boats. I guess the $1300/month for 240 month financing isn't as fun when money starts to dry up. 

It's not looking good for the economy as a whole. 

 

[UWSkier]

Will be interesting, for sure.  High interest rates and economic slowdowns tend not to hit the super high-wealth, cash buyer types, which make up a pretty significant chunk of high end boat sales.  Look across the lake at the RV dealer on the other side.  They have tons of 40-80k inventory that most folks finance, but the 350k motor coaches are still selling at a slightly slower, but still steady clip.

I think you also have a glut of demand waiting to pounce on low priced offerings.  Lots of people are waiting for the bubble to pop and swoop in, which holds prices higher.  To see this in action, look at sporty cars and HD trucks.  Both were in short supply during COVID.  Both have supply coming back online, but prices are still high and dealers are charging "market adjustments" on several models.

[DW]

My assumption would be the ski boat market would be less impacted by the economic swings based on the personal use buyer demographic compared to the wake / surf segment.  Older audience tending to stick with their chosen passion.

[Hucklefin]

On 7/5/2023 at 10:48 AM, chaloux said:

It's not only boats, I believe it's all toys. A good childhood friend's family just sold their Yamaha dealership. Pre-purchased snowmobiles for the next season are called "snow-checks."  Typically for a slow year they'd have around 20 snow-checks. Good years up to 100. I was chatting with the old owner recently and the new owner has one snow-check. One.  Now we'll see how long it takes for prices to drop back to normal - I'm talking used here, not sure new will ever really return unless new orders drop catastrophically.

Yamaha has announced they are no longer selling snowmobiles after 2025, who is also an engine supplier for arctic cat. This is probably a reason among others that your friend sold.

About boats, I am wondering if they increased employees during the boom and if they are simply cutting back to pre-covid employee number, or if its deeper.  Another question related to cutting boat production rates, how necessary is seventeen (17) different wakeboat models?

Edited July 6, 2023 by Hucklefin

[BraceMaker]

@DW potentially.  What I see is that the market of DD ski boats has shrunk to just the serious crowd.  So protected but it is a much smaller group of buyers.  So while 90% of the people who were going to buy a new ski boat in the next 2-3 years probably still will that's only like 5% of the people who were going to buy those same boats 20 years ago and its probably only about 1% of the people who were going to buy that type of boat 30 years ago. 

[The_MS]

The economy is humming along great. 
YOY average cost of new boat up 13% and interest rates around 10%.  Whats to complain about? 

[Horton]

news is Nautique shed another 100 or so people this week 

[Horton]

It is not just the boat market...

https://drivinvibin.com/2023/07/28/rv-dealerships-trouble/