I figure the first 6 to 8 pounds is water/bloat from eating holiday shit; then the next 12 or so pounds is a grudge match. I, personally, cut to one solid meal for dinner. No snacks during the day except for water or coffee or a shot of fish oil. 6 nights a week I alternate between high protein, low fat, no carbs (think steak or chicken and nothing else except maybe some raw spinach/bell peppers), and then the next night higher fat, medium proteins, and no carbs (think bacon and eggs and cheese or something and some greens like raw spinach). On day seven I blow out a tray of pastries/cookies for dinner to spike insulin and get the hormones/metabolism back up for the next six days and do it again. I can generally cut 3 pounds a week after the initial water drain if I'm disciplined. So short answer, some of its water but I'm also down into different belt and pant sizes.