Damn Coronavirus!

[dthate]

@liquid d ya buddy, loaded for bear....

[Ed_Johnson]

The only thing were missing is Walking Zombies !!!

 

Remember, "When you give up Liberty for Security, then you deserve neither."

 

 

[matthewbrown]

3 weeks of pandemic brings our strong American system to its knees. 3 weeks. It just shows how fragile everything is when it revolves around man hours. I have no answer but know that we can do better and must do better. They are saying we will have a mortality rate of around .6% when this is over, what happens the next time when a gnarly bird flu rolls through with a 60% mortality rate?

[ral]

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

 

That phrase was used to support a government tax increase, against those not willing to pay permanent taxes.

[LoopSki]

@ral how is the virus situation in Chile?

[HSL]

Palm Beach County has shut down Okeeheelee Park, including the ski lakes.

[Bruce_Butterfield]

@ral true comment, but context is important

 

https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-ben-franklin-really-said

 

@matthewbrown if/when the next flu with a 60% mortality rate hits (assuming I'm in the 40%), I'll be targeting @liquid d 's ammo stockpile! The societal disruption over the following year will probably wipe out 80% of those survivors. So yeah, we're screwed.

 

[ral]

@LoopSki , we have a large number of cases v/s deaths compared to the rest of Latin America, most likely because of extensive testing (0.3% mortality).

 

Quarantine measures have been more gradual than the rest of the region (hopefully because of the additional testing compared to other places), but now they are starting to tigthen up, and some counties in Santiago are going full quarantine tonight for 7 days (at least).

 

We are used to big earthquakes - where there is no anticipation. This feels more like waiting for a hurricane, believing that it will suddenly change direction - although it has not changed anywhere else...

[swc5150]

Wow the fire sale has begun! Someone just posted an insane deal on a '13 200 on SIA. If it lasts the day, I'll be amazed.

[The_MS]

@jcamp just go Google the death rate in the last depression and that’s before all the social media freaked everyone out. The suicide rate itself is huge. Not to mention the amount of money that is raised through churches and volunteer organizations that we send out world wide to people all over the world that will dry up. Think about it.

Is it right to for the nations children’s futures to be destroyed to save 50,000 Americans? 100,000? 250.000?

40,000 people die in car wrecks per year but we still drive.

 

[jcamp]

Ha, ha @The_MS whines for weeks about the media overblowing things and creating mass hysteria and then he types something like this: "Is it right to for the nations (sic) children’s (sic) futures to be destroyed ..."

 

 

[The_MS]

I was waiting for that bait. So why is asking about what the acceptable number of deaths before we go into a depression creating hysteria? What is your number? This is all food for thought. I don’t have answers and I am in the high risk group if I get it.

If you don’t think your kids will pay for this your nuts. 1 trillion seconds ago there was no written language and the pyramids were not even built yet. We are now going to be at a minimum 24 trillion in the hole.

We all know I hate kids so this is good for them.

And ya, the media still SUCKS

[ral]

@swc5150, when disaster strikes, cash is king...

[ral]

One thing I noticed: not even under the extreme circumstances we face, this thread has yet come close to the number of comments in "the stop @MS from running 39 beer " one...

[The_MS]

@ral its also much more fun to talk about. I may slow down my postings just so we don’t exceed the beer thread

[matthewbrown]

@The_MS we’ve come along way with automobile safety over the years that include better construction, safety bags, signage and control lights, but, we can still buy a Dodge Demon Hellcat Redeye with 800hp, get plastered and crash it into a wall if we should so choose(or not choose). We have found an acceptable balance at least for now with regulations and freedoms in the auto world, I think we are just trying to do the same with Covid-19 on about 3 weeks notice.

[jcamp]

Deciding that some people should die while others live sure sounds a lot like death panels to me. Maybe Sarah Palin was right!

[The_MS]

If your old like me it’s been decided that I am the first to get cut off

[jcamp]

@The_MS have you ever thought that it would be BETTER for the economy long term to take extreme actions to stop COVID-19 as quickly as possible, rather than let it fester and drain human and financial capital over a longer period of time?

 

My guess is that it's best to tackle it with our full force, let it die out, put it behind us and start rebuilding. I also think that might save hundreds of thousands of lives too, so that's a bonus.

[Than_Bogan]

@jcamp The answer to that lies entirely in how many people would be killed or otherwise permanently affected. And though his sarcasm can become too thick to detect his point, I'm almost sure that's what @The_MS is bringing up. If, unchecked, this thing would kill 25k of us, then that still SUCKS but is comparable to many other threats and in the long-term cannot justify shutting down the economy. If this thing would kill 2M of us, that's completely different in every way. Even if we don't care about those individuals who die (which of course I do!), we still would want to stop that just for the pure damage to the economy.

 

All of this points to: We need better data and that starts with MUCH better testing.

[The_MS]

I agree, but do we really have the capability to do so in this country? I almost would have liked to have seen the reaction if we would have. Look at how Chuck went off when we cut travel to China.

 

[dthate]

Also difficult when it is estimated that there could be likely 80% more people carrying that are asymptomatic. Do you mandatory test everyone?

[Than_Bogan]

Yes.

 

Well not literally. If the sampling is truly random, a tiny fraction of the population provides an EXCELLENT estimate. 10000 people, chosen completely at random, would absolutely nail this down.

 

Sampling theory is some Cool Shit, but people misunderstand it left and right. When a bias enters the selection process (such as people with symptoms) then the applicability of the data is severely diminished.

[eleeski]

The worst case projections are for over 1 million American deaths from Covid19. The best case is zero more Covid19 deaths and about 2 million deaths from other causes in the year. Data is missing to know how many of the background deaths would be part of the Covid19 deaths. Conflicting data from Italy shows the average age of death around 80 years old but much higher numbers filling the local obituaries. Regardless, a lot of Italians are surviving. And most Americans will as well.

 

@The_MS is voicing a valid ethical dilemma. The worst case for the pandemic is a death level somewhat close to what we are used to. Flu, cancer, heart disease, accidents, suicide and other factors take a toll that we have been unable to change - so we accept it. What should we not accept? And how much are we willing to pay to affect the death rate?

 

This pandemic has panicked us to a severe reaction. Perhaps it is appropriate. Perhaps something somewhat less severe can work (Japan?). Doing nothing has led to some dire consequences (NY?) and an accompanying very severe reaction.

 

The panic will end when a treatment is devised and a vaccine is created (even if it's not perfect - like the flu). When the damage to the economy will be repaired is vague but people and businesses are pretty resilient. Hopefully society will recover and the bitterness between people with different views on how to react will fade (I'm seeing too much of that now - please get along - and I'm trying not to say things I might regret).

 

Eric

[Stevie Boy]

There is hope, if they come up with a vaccine, unlike Flu , reports suggest that the Virus is not Mutating, the real issue is how long it survives on surfaces, worrying because natural diseases do not normally live that long away from its host, which brings me to think that maybe part of it, was manufactured.

[mfjaegersr]

To those raising the (essentially) ‘let people die so people can get back to work’ discussion:

 

If not yourself, who do YOU offer up to die? An aging parent or grandparent perhaps? Or does that make the discussion too personal? If only we could nominate a former horrible boss. Or awful human being disguised as a politician?

 

Pretty easy to volunteer up other people to die so the rest of us can get on with it...that’s pretty cold, and dare I say ‘self-centered.’

[Rednucleus]

@Stevie Boy Corona viruses can indeed mutate. Read about FIP corona virus in cats. Starts out as a no big deal kitten diarrhea. If not cleared by the kitten's immune system it hangs around mutating, and if by chance the FIP form arises, it's 100% fatal.

[eleeski]

@mfjaegersr My mother. She's likely got a 50% chance of coming out of covid19 fine but now a certainty that she will not get to see her kids and grandchildren at her 94th birthday. Those family moments mean everything to her now. She lost something critical and fleeting in her short time left. Protecting her life cost her what she lives for. These are her feelings, not made up by me.

 

I might feel quite different if the kids were at high risk from Covid19. There is risk for everyone, for sure. The younger people have other more pressing risks though - some of which are exacerbated by how society is reacting to this one disease. The ethics are VERY complicated.

 

Avoiding chaos in the medical industry might be a better justification for draconian measures than body counts.

 

Eric

[Bruce_Butterfield]

@mfjaegersr I'll gladly offer up @Horton and @The_MS if that will get the virus gods to pull back.

 

But seriously, this entire situation is based off models of contagiousness, lifespan of virus on surface, transmissibility, fatality rates, will hospitals get overwhelmed, what happens if xxxxx,?. Yes those models are important, but many of the input variables are little more than estimates (or frequently wild ass guesses). Change one of the inputs by 0.1 and the world ends – change it by -0.1 and there is no impact worse than the common cold. It’s the plethora of unknowns that are the real issue. We know what happens with the flu, cancer, heart disease, car accidents, etc. We DON’T know what this KungFlu will eventually lead to.

 

Many in the medical profession are scared the worse case scenarios will happen. That’s the world they live in. Many on the outside see no impact other than TP shortages and the “end is near” from most news outlets. AND the very real impact on their lives if they can’t work and get a paycheck.

 

That’s the situation we are in. While most are erring on the side of caution, its not wrong to challenge the cost/benefit of extreme caution. The extreme caution may turn out to be worse on the world than treating this like the flu. No one knows.

 

The real problem is human nature and the fear of the unknown. What we don’t know creates fear and panic and is amplified by many societal factors I won’t get into at the risk of getting banned.

 

Wash your hands, don’t cough on your co-worker and if you don’t feel well, stay the heck away from high risk people. Its not that complicated.

 

@eleski, I’m starting to think you aren’t so crazy after all. Godspeed to your mom.

 

 

[liquid d]

Be careful, that shiat can mutate....i started with corona tonight and ended up with a crapload of Tito's and OJ and now.....omg I'm outtacontrol....wife's about to put me on lockdown! Goood Luck people! wooooohooo!

[Than_Bogan]

@mfjaegersr That's not how risks work. Every time I drive my car, I accept a very small risk that I could be killed in a car accident. This DOES NOT and WILL NEVER require me to select the person who dies in a car accident that day.

[matthewbrown]

@Bruce_Butterfield hit the nail on the head, we do not know for sure what this virus will do. We have a pretty good idea of the risks of automobiles, and what cardiovascular disease and cancer will provide us in the way of caskets this year, but we’ve had ample data on these for years and evidently are ok with the regulation/freedom balance within them. Nobody is racing to shutdown all Crispy Creme donut stores to help you not have a cardiovascular event in the future.

This is a novel human virus as it had only been in animals, and the info I have gleaned from Evolutionary Biologists and Virologist is that it most likely originated in cave dwelling larger bats who kept their distance from one another. Like all viruses it wants to perpetuate its presence into the future by spreading from host to host but not killing its host hence only the .6% mortality risk for this particular virus. It’s not a very effective virus if it kills its host. In animals it rarely killed its hosts but the fear is, through time it could variate enough to malfunction and kill more humans than we had expected. Again, having just 3 weeks to take all this in and try to come up with risk reward variables compared to what we know about other killers in our life just isn’t realistic. As @Than_Bogan said we just don’t have enough data yet.

[6balls]

Average vent time in NY I read to today is 11-20 days. ANY elderly person on a vent that long, even if they survive, is not gonna be long afterward and they don't go back home...or become a shadow of what they were before...they take a backward step they never gain again...and die of something else moving forward in my guess is 12-18 months.

 

The horror here, for those of us up front, is telling people and families we have nothing for you...even IF we have it available you don't get it due to your age and co-morbid conditions. Even if you are that guy who is 75 with high blood pressure who plays tennis twice weekly...or can still run 32 off.

 

Is it worth the economy, I dunno. What I do know is we may be getting 200 critical in a county with 2 vents. My partners and I, and our policies, may have to determine who and who doesn't get a chance, and try to explain to patients and their families that given the circumstances they, or their loved one, are expendible...all while being heavily exposed and taking this crap home to our families. Many folks I know have a horrible time putting their pets down (for good reason)...we are dealing with humans here.

 

Who wants to play? Any takers? Anyone want to do this? I don't either but I'm front line and it's what I do. This isn't shortline slalom. There are ethical dilemma's for sure, but please don't trivialize what's about to happen in terms of life and death in ways we have never experienced.

 

There is going to be healthcare PTSD. We are pulling rank and file clinic nursing to hospitals...they signed up for a 8-5 job in the clinic with no call or weekends...but we need them and now they are front-line...at the same risks that I am, stretching their skills. This is brutal folks.

 

If our culture was different, it may be different. If we were just ok watching folks die without resources...maybe it would be ok. Have you ever watched someone starve for air without resources? Have you ever had to be there when it happened and SEE THEIR EYES? Have you had to explain it to their families? Have you had to help plan where bodies of those who passed may go in an over-whelmed system? Come to work with me, then decide.

 

Real deal, serious ethics, serious economics.

[MillerTime38]

living on a military base you get to see first hand how this can escalate into a HUGE problem, once a ship is compromised it impacts the ships readiness which in turn impacts that ships ability to do its job, protect you. One of the shipmates in Japan contracted the virus while on leave back on the states and luckily he was quarantined when returning back to japan so hopefully the virus hasn’t spread among the ship. If it has it could impact the entire 7th fleet. Ships pull back into port but people can’t leave the boat to visit their families (who they haven’t seen for months) because of the risk of the corona virus. I understand people’s concern about the economy but we are dealing with something much larger than an economy,

 

**update no so lucky now the 1 case has turned into several cases in 24 hours...

[klindy]

[DW]

Would battlefield medics be a reasonable source of information / experience to assist with the terrible decision of choice? What was their decision matrix?

 

It is unfortunate that we as a society, and a global one at that, perhaps did not listen to a certain Bill Gates when he pretty much warned and outlined the impending pandemic in 2015. Along with every time we increase our desire for cheap imported goods, we slowly move that country to infringe on natures inherent controls via the need for another factory to produce those goods.

 

As much as there are lots of stones being hurled at the US response, John Hopkins has issued a report that tends to contradict some of the comments. Humans in general are more reactionary than proactive. And very prone to make bad decisions...

[Rednucleus]

These comments are from one of your BOS veterinarians, so a bit of medical knowledge on board ...

Everyone visiting this thread needs to view the Mythbusters clip above. Adam is the classic example of the "silent corona spreader" and there are likely hundreds of thousands of them in the USA at this point. Are we missing a possibly very easy way to change this scenario. It has been reported that wearing a mask in public will do little to protect you from catching the virus, but what if every man woman & child was required to mask up when leaving home for the next 3 months? What would the above clip look like if Adam wore a mask? Respiratory shed is how corona moves. If all infected shedders had a mask on, wouldn't that help alot? I recognize that masks are at a premium, but if this was a game changer, production could easily be accelerated (like we made airplanes in WW II). Compliance would be easy - don't let anyone in your store if mask is not in place. Probably not going to work in restaurants, but keep them closed and government pay their wages till safe to open again. And government produce and distribute masks nation wide. I'll bet that's a drop in the bucket vs what is going to be spent in the next few months. Our WA "2 week shelter in place" IMO is a joke. Still able to go to grocery store, doctor, etc. My vet clinic is still seeing 20+ cases a day. If our governor eases restrictions in a week or a month, the virus is still out there and will rapidly spread again - it will be like watching Ground Hog Day.

Sometimes the simplest idea can help the most. Comments from those of you with medical expertise will be appreciated. Please explain to me why my suggestion would not help.

[klindy]

I pretty much agree with you @Rednucleus The exceptions to the stay at home orders seems pretty loose. I have secondhand contacts in China that have said the stay at home order there was a strict 45 days with essentially no exceptions (obviously enforceable there under different circumstances). Point is it seems that staying separate from each other helps.

 

Every time I see some report about people who are traveling from one place to another being advised to self quarantine for 14 days is backwards. Same as people arriving at the airport being confronted by a thermometer to see if they have a fever. The traveler should have had his temperature checked before he got on the plane and no allowed to travel if it was elevated. And the person going somewhere expected to self isolate would be better to isolate for 14 days before they go to make sure they are carrying the virus with them.

 

An interesting concept I heard the other day was in the event you encounter someone and need to maintain your social distancing, rather than act/wonder if they have it and awkwardly try to avoid them, it would be better to “assume” you have it and you want to avoid spreading it. Shifting the responsibility to all of us to “avoid spreading it “is a better practice than “trying not to catch it”.

[matthewbrown]

@Rednucleus best most common sense post I’ve seen.

[ALPJr]

@Rednucleus submit that suggestion to your local, state and federal reps’s. Good idea.

[UWSkier]

@Rednucleus agree 100%. Look at your dense Asian cities. Masks are worn with near ubiquity in times of public health crisis. Their trains, sidewalks, offices, and homes are every bit as densely packed as they are in NY. Everyone in the US completely misses the point and says "masks won't help you because they don't form a tight seal." It's not only about preventing you from inhaling the virus. It's about containing the virus on the infected person.

 

Mask wearing absolutely works as a matter of common sense. Here, especially if you're Asian, if you wear a mask you get punched, verbally attacked, or mocked. I saw my Taiwanese wife have this happen at a grocery store yesterday. She was wearing a mask and a teenage girl went out of her way to stand next to her and cough before walking away giggling with her friends. Friends of mine in NY have friends who have been physically assaulted for being Asian and wearing masks. It's absolutely nuts.

 

I think the only reason we haven't had a "wear a mask" order here is because people would hoard them, and they're still most needed in hospital environments.

[Rednucleus]

Boeing is not making planes, have them gear up and make masks for the govt to buy and supply the nation. Masks don't need to be hoarded - wear it for the day, spray it with a dilute bleach solution and it's good to go for tomorrow, Change them out once a week. It's not rocket science. Change the cultural climate so anyone out in public WITHOUT a mask gets punched or kicked in the junk.

[The_MS]

I like how @Bruce_Butterfield offers up his fellow HOF guy right away.

[jpattigr]

Everybody laughed at the first people wearing Snow ski and cycling helmets, now you are questioned when you don't wear a helmet. It's all what people are used to seeing. New Norm maybe everyone wearing masks...

[UWSkier]

China has just ordered all cinemas to close after reopening a bunch of them. Doesn't really square with their official numbers of only a handful of new cases daily.

[Stevie Boy]

From where we are in the UK, one of the bigger issues is the length of time this virus can live on a surface before degrading, Days, up to Seventeen Days, Generally 72 hours, transmission is easy in this respect.

When you go to the supermarket, ask yourself, Who stacked the shelves, did anyone handle the item before you picked it up, on check out did the cashier handle the item, how many surfaces did you touch in the supermarket after handling products, working on the premise that you have not touched your face yet, we then move to the vehicle, you are going to use the door handle, the steering wheel, the gear selector and other controls, when you get home you are going to open your front door and unload in the kitchen, even if you wash your hands, you are still going to handle products that may have been contaminated by others after, wash your hands again, but the products have been in contact with surfaces in your kitchen it goes on.

 

Have you touched your face yet ?

 

 

This virus is very difficult to control because of this, the less contact you can have with items outside of your domain and other people, the safer you and your family are and the safer other people are.

Would you choose Money or your Health !

 

 

[MillerTime38]

@Rednucleus you have a very valid point with masks. The country of japan has relatively controlled the spread and is it a coincidence that wearing masks is a VERY common practice over here? Even before this virus, it was common to see 30-40% of the population wearing masks out in town, it wasn’t because they were afraid of catching anything, they just don’t want to spread their germs. Now it’s more like 95-100% wearing masks

[UWSkier]

@MillerTime38 bingo. First world Asian countries have a much greater shared sense of responsibility and common sense about this whole thing. Rest of the world needs to stop poking fun and take notice.

[6balls]

@rednucleus yes the masks in general are too porous to prevent one from contracting. Having said that...if someone has it and sneezes/coughs they spew like crazy and a mask limits that...so having patients have a mask on...sick or not (cuz they could be asymptomatic infected) protects our hospital employees and healthcare workers MORE than if they wore the mask themselves...short of a N95...tho the Covid molecule is pretty tiny, man!

 

Protecting our healthcare workers--mostly young folks in my area...is imperative. So masking patients does this but our workers don't necessarily understand...panic is an interesting thing and does all kinds of things to rational thinking.

 

You are all more likely to pick it up in the air than from surfaces. It's not a terrible idea to mask up it's better than nothing...but reports look like washing and washing and washing hands is key.

 

There is also a recent study showing that vents don't create more survivors...but there is more work to be done on such studies I'm not willing to be "all in" on that yet...but holy crap if vents don't matter...holy smokes. If that's true just provide supplemental O2 and see who makes it and who doesn't.

 

I also stand by my prior posts that anyone on a vent for 3 weeks has an incredible hill to climb afterward, and elderly who don't die on it, will never recover from the event overall and slide to a quality of life unacceptable or death due to frailty from something else.

 

Practial stuff is patients mask, sick stay home unless in respiratory distress requiring oxygen, social distance, if you want to mask go for it, wash your hands a lot (no shit for 20 seconds a pop). It's hard to never touch your face it happens without thinking...wash your hands a lot.

 

Hang in there, folks. Difficult times. Opinions are like ass holes, facts are more rare. The more scared we are the more irrational our thought. I want the best for all of you and your families...so stay calm, use your melon, and those of us on the front line are gonna be here for you and everyone else. Understand our plight, understand the human trauma we will all face.

 

We tend to thank the military personnel, as we should (at least I do everytime I see s'one in fatigues). It is for thier sacrifice to be front line. Now it is your healthcare personnel.

 

 

[UWSkier]

@6balls any thoughts on hand washing with something like a hibiclens (chlorhexadine gluconate) if you have it over and above hand soap? Curious as to its efficacy against viruses as it's primarily an anti-bac wash.